Tag Archives: ONS

A Nice Surprise for Chancellor Gideon.

The UK economy grew 0.6% in the fourth quarter of 2015, higher than the previous estimate of 0.5%.

As a result, the economy grew by 2.3% for the whole of 2015, rather than 2.2% as previously thought, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

Unsurprisingly, the figure came as a surprise to experts, who had forecast that it would remain unchanged.

One wonders whether Chancellor Gideon will blame the Global Economy for this morsel of good fortune.

UK Economy: I told you so!! But would you listen?!

“WTF?!”

A single  swallow doesn’t make a summer! Now is the time to calm down and  inject a bit of realism into the equation!

(Reuters) – British industrial output was flat in July and there was a marked deterioration in the trade balance, official data showed on Friday, taking some of the shine off recent strong economic data.

Output in the industrial sector – which makes up about one sixth of Britain’s economy – had been expected to edge up by 0.1 percent according to a Reuters poll.

The narrower category of manufacturing rose by 0.2 percent, just short of forecasts for a 0.3 percent rise, although June’s figure was revised up, the Office for National Statistics said.

Signs of a surprisingly strong recovery in Britain’s economy have come thick and fast in the past few months. Growth of 0.7 percent in the second quarter could be trumped by an even stronger reading in the third.

The Bank of England pledged last month to keep interest rates on hold until unemployment falls to 7 percent, something it does not envisage happening for another three years, but the strength of recent data has encouraged traders to bet rates might rise as soon as next year.

Separate figures showed Britain’s goods trade deficit widened to 9.85 billion pounds in July after narrowing sharply in June. Economists had forecast a gap of 8.153 billion pounds.

Including services, in which Britain traditionally runs a surplus, the trade deficit widened to 3.085 billion pounds. That was more than double its level in June and the worst reading since October 2012.

Exports to non-European Union countries plunged by nearly 16 percent, the biggest monthly fall since January 2009.

Monthly trade figures are volatile but July’s figures may dampen hopes that Britain’s economic recovery is broadening and moving onto a more sustainable footing.

(Reporting by Christina Fincher and William Schomberg)

CPI LIES!!!

Politicians and economists are hailing the apparent fact that the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) has fallen to 5.0% for the year ending October 2011. However what many (including politicians) do NOT understand is that this type of result can be caused by one of TWO factors.

It may well mean that prices have decreased  from the previous month but by the same token, it can also mean that prices may have spiked in October 2010, giving an apparent October decrease one year later. So, rather than percentages, let us have a look at the ACTUAL CPI figures for September and October.

The CPI was fixed at 100 in 2005. That simply means that a basket of prices was manipulated to produce an easy starting point. So, for instance, if  the basket of prices added up to say £510.20, that figure would have been divided by £510.20 and multiplied by 100.  This “factor” is then applied to all future baskets of prices.

In September 2010, the CPI was 114.9 and in the next month (October 2010, it was 115.2)

In September 2011, the CPI was 120.9 and in the next month (October 2011, it was 121.0)

So, you can see that between September 2011 and October 2011, the CPI is continuing its upward trend, although the month on month annualised percentage figure tells a completely different story.

PRICES ARE ON THE INCREASE ALTHOUGH THE GOVERNMENT IS PATTING ITSELF ON THE BACK  AS IF SOMETHING HAD BEEN ACHIEVED!!!!!!!!!!

These are the figures which the government uses: CLICK HERE (and the government’s own (ONS) figures will appear in a pdf format. Look in the Right-Hand Column).