Post-Saddam-type chaos in Libya will NOT be avoided. That’s nigh-on impossible.
One of the overlooked plans of the Iraq campaign was the Exit Strategy. Well, bugger me, the West has done it again in Libya.
The next major initiative will be the customary “Humanitarian Assistance” which is as good an excuse as any to maintain a military presence to ensure that the fuzzy-wuzzies keep in line.
THAT is going to be the most impossible task. The average Libyan’s loyalties are like this: 1. Family 2. Tribe 3. State Flag…….. In that order.
NOTHING but a totalitarian state can keep tribal factions in line. Government by Brutality appears to be the only way to stop tribes from killing each other. Saddam demonstrated that in Iraq and every other state in the Middle East continues to suppress its people – but for very valid reasons.
Democracy is an anathema to tribal people. It is an alien concept.
In Libya’s case, the theory is that a fiefdom which has controlled many tribes through the medium of suppression can be turned into a democracy. Politicians may not have yet noticed that such a thing has never been done. It’s been tried on many occasions but so far, without success.
The most likely outcome in Libya is either the emergence of another authoritarian leader or the breakup of a country which was a western construct in the first place. It is a politically barren place with no political parties or constitution.
Meanwhile, the rebels are heading for Gaddafi City – SIRTE. One hopes that they all remember that the Tahoura Research Centre near Tripoli houses (or housed) the remnants of Libya’s nuclear programme. There are stocks of nuclear material which could easily be turned into a “dirty” bomb.
There has already been a half-hearted attempt to launch a Scud missile so hopefully, the rebels do not, once again find themselves on the receiving end, should Gaddafi supporters decide to surprise them.
Luckily, the BBC’s John Simpson has finally arrived in Libya – so all should be well. We don’t yet know whether he travelled across the desert with the Tuaregs or whether he is wearing the customary tea-towel on his head but after hearing of his exploits in Afghanistan, it’s possible. He’ll know what to do.
Meanwhile the next battle that into which new Libyan Prime Minister Mahmoud Jibril will have to lead his people will be the rather unedifying soon-to-be-fought campaign for Libyan reconstruction.
The cue for the Western invasion is the phrase “Humanitarian Catastrophe”. Look out for that one.
p.s. The politicians appear to be surprised by the fact that, in spite of the announcement that the war in Libya had been won, the fighting appears to be continuing. Just like Iraq.
There appear to be more and more self-appointed “GURUS” on the Internet: Finance Guru, Lifestyle Guru, Management Guru….the list is endless.
I used to be one of those but luckily managed to extract my head from my ass before it was too late.
Please don’t do it.
I now prefer the more modest “Messiah”.
Yesterday, I was listening to the BBC World Service when I was surprised to hear a presenter use the word “Asyla” as a plural of Asylum. WTF? People who do that are nothing but pretentious scrota.
Tomorrow, if Ben Bernanke announces that the Fed is going to print yet more “empty” dollars, he will be introducing yet more inflation into the US economy. Markets will recommence their downward slide and investors will all rush-off in the direction of the Bullion Markets.
If however, there is no further printing of dollars and QE3 does not happen, the likelihood is that the American economy will collapse as investors all rush off in the direction of the Bullion Markets.
Either way, gold is the safest bet.
Meanwhile in Germany, Chancellor Angela Merkel is also between a rock and a hard place. If she agrees to fully support lame-duck Euro economies through the issue of the Euro Bond – so that countries such as Greece are able to enjoy unlimited credit at reasonable rates, she risks a rebellion back home from the Christian Democratic Party as well as from an electorate which does not wish to donate any more to broken Euro economies.
However, if there is no mechanism to support poorer Euro states, the Euro could collapse, together with the German economy.
By the way, it is time to start worrying about the world’s Stock Markets. Starting tomorrow.
Today, Liberals are UP(!) 4% in the latest opinion poll. Does that mean that there may be a change of plan in Nick Clegg being handed a sexy European Parliament job as a consolation prize after the 2015 General Election?
In response to emails concerning my dog…
I am sick and tired of receiving questions about my dog who mauled an illegal immigrant, two rappers, a hoodie-looter with hanging-past-the-crack tracksuit bottoms , three Sub-continent customer service clerks speaking broken English, one Member of Parliament, two policemen, three flag burners and a taxi driver.
FOR THE LAST TIME…THE DOG IS NOT FOR SALE !
Press release from HM Treasury: http://bit.ly/oIgJbo
Record results! Congratulations kids – another record year. You must have worked SOOO hard.
Here’s something for the cleverer ones to colour-in: