The Government has a vested interest in allowing us to assume that suddenly the comparatively modest bailouts and part-nationalisations of our banks have somehow solved our economic woes. They would have us believe that we can now sit back and await the often-mentioned green shoots of economic recovery to somehow poke their way through the concrete of economic failure. We have even had “estimates” as to when the recovery will kick-in. Where were these soothsayers one year ago?
I am using this blog to put on record – to predict, what will really happen.
By Q4 of 2009, the FTSE 100 will be below 2500 and UK unemployment will be above 10% and there will be no proper recovery for at least three years. Why so negative? Because we are being conned by the Unholy Trinity : government, economists and bankers. How are we being conned?
During any economic turn-down there are comparatively short periods of “ersatz” recovery – the so-called bear-market rallies. Those nuisance false-dawns when astute traders can continue to make a few quid for themselves will act as an occasional shot in the arm which will make us all feel better when the real trend is DOWN.
The banks will be allowed to inflate the book value of the so-called toxic assets and their profits will be further inflated by them “losing” most of their losses – if that makes sense – and this will all be done with the Government’s connivance.
Politicians, regulators and economists are simultaneously scamming us and themselves not understanding what is going on because the amount of the so-called bank bailouts is a mere fraction of what is really needed. If the banks had really been bailed out, we would by now be back to normal. Vague talk of “we are awaiting banks to regain their confidence” have been repeated so many times that we are beginning to believe without understanding. Exactly what the banks themselves were doing for ten years.
The Budget will be no more than a little man, putting a little finger in a hole as big as a (rapidly depreciating) house. The Chancellor is hawking snake-bite like an old-school medicine salesman who is punting useless medicine which will do nothing to ease the pain to come.
As a businessman I have always been a great believer in applying the “So-what?” test to any management problems or initiatives – just to test any effect – positive or negative. The rule is simple – Write down the phrase or problem, then add “so what” and then attempt to answer the question.
For instance, Kobe summit – so what? Global warming – so what? Tomorrow’s Budget – so what?
There are many phrases that I have tested in this way – my most recent favourite being: G20 – so what? The answer is WINDOW-DRESSING. But the worrying thing is that the whole thing was based on the premise that you cannot overestimate the collective stupidity of people in large groups – that’s us.
Over 100,000,000 hits on U-Tube. It’s those pesky Americans and their uber-sentimentality. Make the Yanks cry and the world is yours. Don’t forget, they know what they are talking about. They must do – they invented Country Music and Cabbage Patch Dolls. There’s your answer.
Seriously, we all have to admit that Susan is not classically beautiful. What do you think the reaction would have been if there had not been such a mismatch between looks and voice?
She’s a lovely lady but the Americans love a freak show and that is what they will turn her into – and she does not deserve it.