IPCC Report on GLOBAL WARMING: We should always question and be suspicious of ANY belief system which is over-reliant on consensus rather than evidence. Consensus-building is a socio-political and not a scientific process. The alarmist global-warning “faith” is a fine example of the phenomenon. Having said that, the so-called “scientific evidence” can also be flawed. You may not realise it but even the “peer review” process of scientific papers is subject to consensus. It too is subjective and on many occasions…selective. In the same way that consensus is built on selectivity, there are still occasions when scientific results which do not follow the “mainstream” can be ignored and buried. (DISCLAIMER: Other consensus-driven belief systems and faiths are available!)
An economy used to depend on the interactions between consumers, commerce, politics and investors. Nowadays, we have to add banks (which used to be no more than a service industry) as an additional entity.
Keynesian economics are all well and good in a Steady State situation but we have well and truly entered times when Chaos Theory rules economics. Consequently, the motley collection of politicians-who-meet do not have the intellectual capacity to deal with what has become a multi-causal international problem with more parameters (known and unknown) than wines served at a G20 banquet.
My 2012 predictions are in no particular order, either in content or importance. They are random.
1. For several years, I have been writing about the Bank of England’s appalling forecasts. Finally, they have admitted that their forecasting model is wrong so they are spending £2.5 million on a new one. Their V-shaped recovery will become a straight-line depression and their 2% inflation forecasts will double.
2. The prominence and dominance of Central Banks will continue to grow as politicians continue to struggle with sovereign debt.
3. Europe will continue its recession with an estimated average contraction (negative growth) of -0.5%.
4. Sovereign monetary policy as well as the actions of Central banks will continue to be driven by the same factor which has been dominant for the last few years: Political Ineptitude.
5. The European Central Bank has begun the process of Quantitative Easing and this will accelerate during 2012.
6. European Banks have 6 months within which to raise their Tier 1 Capital Ratios to 9%. This has already resulted in a Tsunami of deleveraging. This will continue to impact badly on economic growth.
7. Euro fiscal integration will continue to be discussed as will the ECB’s support for the (broken) bond markets.
8. Eurobond yields will continue to rise to record levels until even the Germans wake up to the fact that the whole thing has become unsustainable.
9. I continue to envisage the failure of the Euro which should have happened during 2011. There will be bank and government collapses. French banks and the Spanish government will lead the way.
10. Contrary to what Mario Draghi has suggested, the ECB will leap into the Bond Market and begin to buy-up Government Bonds.
11. Italy will suffer massive Civil Unrest as the Monti government introduces unsustainable austerity policies and the economy is plunged into serious recession.
12. Spain is already in recession but more austerity will be announced .
13. The ECB will take centre-stage in Europe and will slash interest rates to zero (and below!).
14. The nonsense of the Bank of England’s “independence” will be put to the test with at least £150 billion in Gilt purchases during 2012.
15. The United Kingdom’s official unemployment figures will cross 3.5 million, producing an acceleration in forced sales and a subsequent collapse in the housing market with 25-30% wiped from house values.
16. UK consumption will remain weak, primarily as a result of increasing unemployment and a rising RPI.
17. Last year I predicted a UK General Election for October 2011. I now predict a General Election during 2012, following a vote of no confidence. The smart money is on Q2 – whilst the Conservatives continue to ride high in the polls and Ed Miliband remains Labour leader.
18. I predicted 2011 as the Year of the Riot. During 2012, every European capital will be affected by rioting.
19. America will make a surprising accelerated economic recovery.
20. The next President of the United States will be…..Barack Obama.
21. Civil unrest will continue to accelerate in the Middle East as the people realise that they have been manipulated by the external forces of self-interest and that Western-style “democracy” is really not for them.
22. We will gradually realise that our intention to halt natural Global Warming was no more than a manifestation of our arrogance.
23. There will be new Pope.
24. There will be an unusually high number of United Kingdom by-elections.
25. Last year I predicted a Beckham divorce because I felt a momentous happening. They let me down by producing a baby (Harper Seven) instead. This year (for some reason), I see them setting up separate homes.
26. China will bail-out Italy from its economic woes. In return for gold. (Italy is the world’s 4th highest gold owner).
27. Gold will cross the $2000 per ounce barrier, then the $3000 barrier and possibly $4000.
28. FTSE 100 will cross 4000 on its way down and the Dow Jones will hit 8500.
29. Nicolas Sarkozy will cease to be French President in May 2012 but his fate is very much intertwined with the Euro and much will depend on how long Mario Draghi of the ECB (the new man in charge) can help the politicians to string things out.
30. Turkey will be the beneficiary from IPA (Instrument for Pre-accession Assistance), which is yet another Euro fund. 233 million euros have been earmarked for Turkey and will be spent on judicial reforms, climate change and environmental projects.
31. Turkey’s integration with Europe will produce an unexpected benefit to Greece. A non-economic excuse to leave the Euro.
32. When Greece leaves the Euro, possibly followed by Germany, a full-blown European recession will begin.
33. Last year I predicted a pre-emptive strike strike by Israel on Iran. It was very close but will happen during 2012. Uncle Sam demands it.
34. The United States will avoid a recession because consumers have begun to consume. However, much will depend on the volume of support America continues to provide to a broken Europe.
35. Crumbling economies will have a good effect on inflation and commodity prices will slide downwards.
36. The Euro will achieve parity with the American $.
37. If there is a “burst” of the Chinese property bubble, there will be a very sharp slowdown in China’s economic growth with a massive effect on commodity exporters everywhere.
38. Greece will continue its death rattle until it wakes up and has the courage to exit the Eurozone shambles and default on ALL of its debt. Then it will receive proper support from unexpected sources and once-and-for-all break its links with Goldman Sachs.
39. The CIA-inspired Arab Spring will continue to become unglued as bloodshed in Egypt increases and the Libyans begin to wake up from the dreams of “democracy”. I foresee a Libyan Civil war.
40. There is only ONE logical end-game in Syria. An assassination and permanent removal of the Assad dynasty.
41. Britain and the United States have left Iraq and in keeping with modern tradition, it now looks more like a giant litter tray than the ancient Cradle of Civilisation. Once again, Civil War, more bloodshed and extremists going “boom” beckon. No number of tin ballot boxes can prevent factional interests jockeying for position.
42. My favourite politician of 2011 will make a very welcome return to the European political scene and continue to annoy the Jedward of the Eurozone , Merkel and Sarkozy, now of course, known as Merkozy. Let’s hope that he doesn’t refer to Merkel as an “unfuckable lardarse” again. That (quote of 2011) would be totally unacceptable!
43. ONLY because I am a great Harry Redknapp fan , I predict that Tottenham Hotspur will win the Premiership.
44. This is not a prediction but a hope that during 2012, somewhere a politician wakes up and realises that in any consumer-driven society, Quantitative Easing is best aimed directly at the consumer and not at the Prima Donna banks, who are not quite sure what to do with it anyway. Never feed a gambling habit.
45. In December 2012, the Chancellor and the Business Secretary (whoever they are) will ask the bankers to show “restraint” in respect of their bonus payments.
46. The United Kingdom’s Political Parties will BOTH realise that they have the wrong man in charge.
47. The Liberals will miss even more opportunities than they did in 2011 but will continue to make macho noises to impress the electorate and each other.
48. The Labour Party will continue to support Ed Miliband and tell us that “Ed is a great leader and the man for the job” – until the moment that he begins to feel stabbing pains between the shoulder-blades.
49. The X-factor will be won by an entity with no discernible talent. (OK – that was an easy one!)
50. The skids will be bolted under the Office for Budget Responsibility.
….And bring in the machine that goes “ping”
Prime Minister David Cameron says that the NHS is “inferior”. That is not accurate. The vast majority of people who work at the sharp-end, i.e those participating in the processes of healing and curing sick people are doing an exceptional job. What has screwed up the NHS is the endless procession of politicians with absolutely no financial or administrative “nouse” using the NHS as a political plaything.
For the last thirty years, politicians have added, subtracted, modified, remodified and created the most cumbersome administrative system in the world – and they still continue to wreak havoc. The NHS is the most depressing administrative nightmare since the invention and continuing expansion of the Indian Civil Service. Mind you, the Brits invented that as well.
The latest plan is to ask General Practitioners to somehow administer billions in Government funds. Essentially, nerds who studied Biology at school are being asked to become managers and financial administrators. Once again, the wrong people are being asked to do the job. The NHS is suffering from Politician Disease and the prognosis is not good.
In the United Kingdom, Education is suffering from the same disease – as is politics itself.
DC cites various bits of evidence which are supposed to demonstrate that a reorganisation of the NHS will somehow push us up the league table of say, the “Cancers Cured League”. When in business or commerce, you are presented with a problem, the first thing that you look for is its Root Cause. For instance, the reason that we lead the way in certain cancers is because the Brits (in the main) have a crap diet and/or live very stressed lives plus we have several generations of people who cannot cook.
The present government has managed to cut our discretionary spending and now it is impacting on our essential spending. For instance – food. That means, in general terms, that there are large sections of our society which will be forced to compromise on an already inadequate diet.
The solution is NOT to allow people to fall sick and then attempt to cure them. The solution has to lie somewhere nearer the front-end of the process. The solution is NOT to bung them into hospital, feed them even worse food than they are used to at home and congratulate ourselves when some malnourished survivors actually make it home!! READ THIS.
To put it simply (and you have to do that for politicians) the answer is NOT to throw money at the problem but perhaps finally to consider how best to reduce the number of visits to the GP and how to minimise the number of hospital admissions.
They are already referring to their new NHS plans as “ambitious”.
“Foolhardy” would seem more appropriate.
Counsellor Lesley Pilkington (above) has claimed that she can “cure” homosexuality – as have many before her. Mind you, having seen a photo of her, perhaps her men friends are just pretending to be gay. I have to admit that when I saw her photo, I came over a little queer.
However, a thought occurred. If she can turn gays into straights, the converse must be possible?
…….and I think that it’s working……
Last week I watched the last three Harry Potter films back-to-back. I have to admit that there were several strange moments when I remembered that I wasn’t supposed to lust after Hermione until The Deathly Hallows.
There is a phrase which should be banned from the English language forever. That phrase is: “Seared Scallops”.
Seared Scallops have become the 21st century culinary equivalent of last century’s Stuffed Peppers, Prawn Cocktail, Cheeze Fondue, Warm Goat’s Cheeze Salad and Quiche Lorraine.
(Needless to say, Seared Scallops with Black Pudding, Pea or Cauliflower puree are very much included !)
I predicted that 2011 would be the Year of the Riot – and so it has come to pass in Tunisia. Like Idi Amin before him, Tunisian President Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali has fled the country to set up home in that well-known despot destination, Saudi Arabia.
It’s amazing how much money some politicians manage to squirrell away.
First, there was the notorious G20 junket. Then we had the Copenhagen Accord. Now we have another meeting. This time, it is the The High Level Advisory Group on Climate Change Financing, held today at 10 Downing Street, London. This meeting precedes the next meeting , which is the Cancun climate change conference later this year.
Today’s meeting was attended by political “big-hitters” such as Guyanan President Bharrat Jagdeo, Norwegian Prime Minister Jens Stoltenberg and Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi. President Barack Obama’s sent his chief economic adviser Larry Summers.
This is Gordon Brown’s statement:
“If we can solve this problem I believe we will be on our way to achieving a global agreement. And today’s first meeting of the group has made a really constructive start.
This is a positive sign that progress can be made with the right leadership. It is vital for Britain that we achieve success.”
The “problem” to which GB is referring is the small matter of raising $100 billion to help third-world countries to deal with climate change.
A REAL opportunity for politicians to have lots of meetings.
Hopefully, their business will be concluded either before there is either serious climate change or when the scientists confirm that the Earth is in fact, cooling.
At the moment it’s a 50-50 shot.
Meanwhile, as you listen to the video below, you may notice that no-one is clouding any of the issues with facts.
The statements shown above were immediately followed by lunch and a quick game of that well-known and much-loved political game of “Bullshit Tennis”.
(When Gordon Brown spoke of the delegates’ “full daries”, he was of course confirming that no meetings are ever held either during Wimbledon fortnight or the Harrods autumn sale.)
Recently. there was a ridiculous sentence on the evening TV news and it sums up what is wrong with the reporting of Global Warming: “Thousands of people have died worldwide as a result of climate change caused by global warming and the Greenhouse Effect.” More confusion between HOT WEATHER and CLIMATE CHANGE.
The Greenhouse effect is not a new phenomenon. In 1824, French scientist, Fourier first described the “greenhouse effect”. Nearly 150 years later in 1965, a President’s Advisory Committee, working for Lyndon B Johnson first put the greeenhouse effect onto the political agenda. They said that the phenomenon was a matter of real concern. THAT was 45 years ago.
Many scientists remain sceptical about Man-Made global warming but unfortunately it is the global-warming alarmists who currently have a stranglehold on the politicians. Why? Because it is the scaremongers who are helping governments to generate BILLIONS in additional revenue. Phenomena such as the 2008 global temperatures – there was Global Cooling – are ignored – and explained in terms of warming.
That’s similar to the Holocaust being described in terms of God’s infinite wisdom and mercy.
The confusion and selective data-publication are further polluted by differing opinion. For instance, some scientists believe that variations in the Earth’s temperature are governed by cosmic rays – the sun’s activity. Then there are those who say that any rises in ocean temperature can be attributed to under-water volcanic activity. Yet others say that the Earth’s heating/cooling is cyclical and that we are currently experiencing the warm period which immediately precedes an Ice Age.
There is another school of thought which states that humanity would not-only survive but thrive in a warmer climate. Currently the Earth’s atmosphere contains about 440 parts per million (PPM) of Carbon Dioxide. During the age of Dinosaurs, there were 5000 PPM of Carbon Dioxide. In those days, life thrived, there were huge forests and dinosaurs evolved into birds and ultimately – primates.
So, an atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration of more than 10 times current levels did not produce uncontrollable global warming.
The politicians’ solutions have generated a vast market in “Carbon Offsets” – literally hot air. How appropriate.
We should be devising methods of dealing with any future global warming and not trying to behave like gods in somehow trying to arrest a phenomenon which we still don’t fully understand.
What would the politicians be asking us to do if the Earth was cooling? Scrap all small cars and drive 4X4 gas-guzzlers? Produce MORE pollution? It really does not make sense.
Finally – would you rather live in a greenhouse or a freezer?
Today, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has admitted a huge “error”.
In 2007, the IPCC said that Himalayan Glaciers “would be gone” by 2035. There was no misunderstanding – they were quite unequivocal.
Their 2007 statement shocked the scientific world because in places, Himalayan glaciers are between an eighth and quarter of a mile thick. Such a robust statement from the IPCC suggested that we were well and truly on the slippery slope to out-of-control Global Warming. This is what the IPCC said in their report:
“Glaciers in the Himalayas are receding faster than in any other part of the world… the likelihood of them disappearing by the year 2035 and perhaps sooner is very high,”
What they did not say however, was that four leading glacier scientist had told them prior to the publication of their report that it was simply impossible for glaciers to melt that fast.
The vice chair of the IPCC, Jean-Pascal van Ypersele, acknowledged his mistake by saying to the BBC : “If we can uncover it, and explain it and change it, it should strengthen the IPCC’s credibility, showing that we are ready to learn from our mistakes.” Dr vanYpersele is a Brussels-born Physicist whose research was on the subject of the effect of global warming on Antarctic sea ice. The research was completed at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Colorado. He is an expert.
He went on to say that the error doesn’t bring the idea of global warming into question and that the four scientists who first challenged the glacier-melting mistake agreed.
It does make you wonder why they made such a bold statement – whether it was just an honest mistake of whether there was some sort of political “naughtiness-with-intent”. (Let’s be charitable).
In the last few months, we have had the University of East Anglia “Climategate” emails , the IPCC “mistake” and the coldest Northern Hemisphere winter for several years.
Gradually, the concept of Anthropogenic Global Warming is taking-on all the characteristics of a dodgy evangelical belief-system rather than a proven scientific phenomenon.
Think about this: If the human race was dragged into a Courtroom and accused of Global Warming, would there be enough evidence to convict – or would there be reasonable doubt?
US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has flown into Denmark – presumably on her Nimbus 2000 and told the delegates at the Copenhagen climate change/cash for the G77 meeting, that her country was prepared to “work towards mobilising $100 billion a year” for developing countries.
The wording of that statement is very clever. It does not say that the USA will contribute $100 billion per year. Neither does it suggest that the Americans will be contributing anything . They will work towards mobilising. That’s good! That’s very good.
Here is the full quote: “In the context of a strong accord in which all major economies pledge meaningful mitigation actions and provide full transparency as to those actions, the US is prepared to work with other countries towards a goal of mobilising $100 billion a year to address the needs of developing countries.”
Genius! The African states are thinking that they’ve scored a decent amount of “wedge” and the Americans know that the New Faith of Global Warming only has limited “legs”. The most important thing is that President Obama will be able to fly in like a latter-day Saviour and appear to have engineered a famous victory.
We have to bear in mind that all these Copenhagen agreements, “strategies” and handouts designed to deal with climate change will not be in place until after 2012, which is when the obligations of the Kyoto Protocol expire.
Today’s state of play in Copenhagen is confused because the developed and developing nations remain at odds over who should cut emissions, how deep the cuts should be, and how much cash should be handed to the poorest nations.
Gordon Brown has arrived early so as not to be overshadowed by the American Presidential machine when it hits town. Gordon Brown is the political equivalent of “dad-dancing”. It’s embarrassing but you cannot help but watch and cringe.
He has once again slipped into his Mittyesque Churchillian skin:
We must summon up the greatest level of ambition”, followed by “The success of our endeavours depends on us forging a new alliance” and “In these few days in Copenhagen which will be blessed or blamed for generations to come, we cannot permit the politics of narrow self-interest to prevent a policy for human survival.”
The technical term for that sort of rhetoric is political “sincero-talk” . Many of us prefer to think of it as meaningless bollocks.
Surprisingly, he didn’t mention anything at all about “fighting them on the beaches” but then again, Germany’s Angela Merkel is about to speak . Best not to rock das boot.
Outside the meeting, the Danish Riot Squad will continue to throw tear gas and beat the crap out of protestors and sundry activists who believe that actions speak louder than words. They cannot fail to speak louder than some of the words we’ve heard this week.
Think about this: The politicians are supposed to know how doomed we really are.
So, if we are THAT doomed, why are they behaving like children and why do they all appear to be so laid back about the whole thing. The urgency with which they address their taxpayers appears to be totally missing from their deliberations.
Surely the polluted triple spectres of self-interest, opportunism and procrastination have no place in discussions which are supposed to decide the future well-being of the human race.
Or perhaps they know something that we don’t – or something that we’re not meant to know.
All species expand as much as resources allow and predators, parasites, and physical conditions permit. When a species is introduced into a new habitat with abundant resources that accumulated before its arrival, the population expands rapidly until all the resources are used up.”
– David Price, Energy and Human Evolution
Then they die.
The Copenhagen conference of Climate change has degenerated into chaos.
The G77 states, led by African countries want money to “help them deal with climate change”. (They will be handed $3 billion in the vain hope that they stop deforestation.)
The Anthropogenic (Man made) Global Warming (AGW) faction is slightly more muted nowadays than the AGW “deniers”. Polls show that the public at large is divided about 50-50: one half believing that AGW is a myth.
Destroyed climate data seems to tell the world that the Global Warming Mullahs will do absolutely ANYTHING to prove their case and, as personified by Al Gore, they seem to think that their case can be proved by using selective data. (By the way, when is Al Gore going to return his Nobel Prize?)
The Americans are dragging their feet because it is likely that in reality, they know that the “Man-Made” bit of Man-Made Global Warming is a fiction.
The Danes’ organisational skills have clearly demonstrated that they may be good at producing bacon but their conference-organising skills would make the Italians blush. There’s nothing less edifying than watching riot police hitting demonstrators with truncheons – that always seems to signify that somewhere, an argument has been lost.
Professors from MIT are appearing on television and, quite frankly, mocking the whole concept of Carbon Dioxide as ” the Devil”.
In short, the Global Warming cause has been set-back ten years, yet there will be “agreements” but no legally-binding action – which is pointless anyway because there can never be any sanctions should, for instance, a country like China decide to ignore the whole thing and carry-on ploughing its own lonely industrial furrow.
The civilised murmurings and inaction of Kyoto are just a hazy memory and no doubt another meeting will be organised in another ten years by which time, according to some, we will all be sporting perma-tans and living in houses on stilts.
It seems that as usual, politicians are attempting to treat the symptom and not the cause. When discussing Risk, one is always looking for the Root Cause. For instance, the Herald of Free Enterprise did not sink just because someone left the doors open. The Root Cause was the fact that because of the company insisting on a too-quick “turnaround” time, the man who was supposed to close the doors was asleep because he had been working solidly for two days. The root cause was the company’s turnaround policy.
9/11 happened because two aircraft ploughed into the Twin Towers but the root cause was American foreign policy.
So what is the root cause of too much Carbon Dioxide in the Earth’s atmosphere? On the face of it, it is the fault of industry, the consumer society, cars, deforestation etc. However the root cause is much simpler. Once you ask yourself WHY are there so many cars? Why do we need to cut down forests in order to grow more cereal crops? Why does China need to produce quite so many goods?
Once we have asked the right questions, the answer is disarmingly straightforward.
The world’s population is growing at a rate of approximately 77 million per year or over 200,000 per day. For instance, during the week of the Copenhagen conference, the world’s population has increased by about 1.5 million.
Although the population growth-rate is on the decrease in many areas, areas such as Sub-Saharan Africa, South and South East Asia, Latin America and the Middle East are experiencing accelerating population growth.(Many G77 members)
There are now 6.8 billion people on Earth and by 2050, this will increase to over 9 billion. More consumers needing more production, generating more pollutants.
The ROOT CAUSE of Man’s small contribution to Global Warming is population growth.
The solution to the global warming crisis may be as simple as the humble condom.
Is it something we said?
The Africans walked out – from under the collective banner of the G77 states.
The G77 developing countries, blocked the United Nations climate talks overnight by walking out of several of the key meetings in protest over the failure of wealthy nations to put firm targets on the table under the Kyoto Protocol. (In case you’re wondering how many countries belong to G7 – it is 120. The original G77 was founded in 1964 by the “Joint Declaration of the Seventy-Seven Countries” and was originally a loose coalition of developing countries. The group includes China)
”It is regrettable that we appear to have reached a deadlock on process,” the Climate Change Minister, Penny Wong, said last night. ”But a range of countries are working hard to get these issues resolved.”
The walk-out had been brewing all week but came unexpectedly as ministers arrived to take over the negotiations from officials, indicating that the deep divisions are not going to be resolved easily and currently it looks odds-on that the whole circus will be extended by a few days so that when Obama arrives, there will be something to sign.
The reason for protest by the developing countries is the refusal of the wealthy nations to clearly state they will keep alive the Kyoto Protocol, the treaty that imposes legally binding cuts on their Carbon Dioxide emissions.
The G77 countries have been demanding all week that the wealthy nations agree to a second round of cuts under the Kyoto Protocol before they will agree to a new treaty. As the whole Kyoto exercise was a farce anyway, it is looking increasingly likely that very little will happen in Copenhagen during the next few days. So far there has been a beautiful display of political window dressing, lots of talk and eating but little promised action.
In the intervening 12 years, most developed countries have been studiously ignoring the 1997 Kyoto Protocol and the Copenhagen meeting has the air of “Let’s start again” about it. The African states are taking the opportunity to help the rich states to salve their collective conscience by relieving them of even more cash. Cash for famines, cash for water, cash for development, cash for Swiss bank accounts and now cash for carbon. They never miss a trick.
There a lots of scientists milling about and as mere increases in temperature have become a bit “passé”, new angles are needed to further panic the world into action. Once again, the scientists have not disappointed
A report prepared specially for the Copenhagen meeting has found growing acidity in the oceans caused by the soaring amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. The acidity is irreversible in the short term and it poses an immediate threat to marine life.
The report warns that by 2050, the ocean acidity could increase by 150 per cent.
”This dramatic increase is 100 times faster than any change in acidity experienced in the marine environment over the last 20 million years, giving little time for evolutionary adaptation within biological systems,”
The report, which was prepared under the UN Environment Program and the Convention on Biological Diversity, highlights the link between soaring greenhouse gas emissions, the health of the oceans and the huge potential cost of reversing the trend.
”Ocean acidification is irreversible on timescales of at least tens of thousands of years, and substantial damage to ocean ecosystems can only be avoided by urgent and rapid reductions in global emissions of CO2. Attention must be given for integration of this critical issue at the global climate change debate in Copenhagen.” said Ahmed Djoghlaf, the Head of the Convention on Biological Diversity.
Apparently, the seas and oceans are absorbing about one-quarter of the carbon dioxide emitted into the atmosphere from the burning of fossil fuels and deforestation. As emissions soar, the percentage is increasing.
The only amazing thing about these new reports is that they appear to come out of nowhere and according to the study, this particular phenomenon seems to be occurring independently of climate change but will no doubt give the African states even more ammunition in their demands for more money to “help them to deal with climate change”.
So yesterday, after a couple of hours, it became clear that the “walkout” wasn’t really a walkout. Then the talking was going to resume; then it seemed to resume. The problem was that this “talking” was informal and not a proper negotiation. The WRONG kind of talking! So it doesn’t look as if it counted as talking. Confusion reigned.
Some African delegates confirmed that the negotiations would not resume until today (Tuesday) but others were already involved in a meeting. However, technically both factions were correct because there WAS talking but the talking wasn’t negotiation.
This is rapidly developing into a meeting about semantics and procedures. The Danish hosts have called for “informal consultations on major issues requiring political guidance.” It seems that all issues need to be discussed formally, although most discussions are being carried-out over a sandwich and a drink without the benefit of an agenda, stenographers or TV cameras. Chaos rules.
The major stumbling block is that the Africans want to continue-with and develop what was agreed in Kyoto, whereas the Danes want to bring everything together under a new singleagreement which will supercede Kyoto. That gives the impression that the Kyoto Protocol is dead and the handouts to the African states will be re-negotiated – or is that re-discussed? Doubtless, the African leaders will moderate their views soon after the chequebooks appear.
In spite of the logistical and organisational cock-up, there is hope. Gordon Brown is flying in.
“Run Rabbit….run rabbit…”
The Copenhagen Conference on climate change reminds us that there are many ways in which we can help the environment.
For some consumers, good environmental citizenship is important even when choosing sex accessories.
No longer will the eco-conscious tolerate mass-produced plastic personal vibrators because they are made with softeners called phthalates. Some body lubricants contain toxic chemicals more typically found in antifreeze and many leather restraints are made as a by-product of the beef industry. The use of leather-made bondage equipment can also compromise your vegetarian or vegan credentials.
A recent issue of Time magazine described a market in organic lubricants, biodegradable whips and handcuffs, vegan condoms, and glass or mahogany vibrators. Hand-crankable clockwoprk models are becoming increasingly popular as they eliminate the need for batteries.
Some Catholic Church officials have also jumped on the eco-bandwagon by embracing the concept to further denounce chemical and latex birth controls, re-emphasising the traditional “rhythm” family planning as the back-to-nature, eco-friendly contraception method.
One therefore supposes that vibrators with a “kick start” and the 50cc modified chain-saw motor are also harmful to the environment.
Woman in Sex Shop ” I’ll have that one over there, on the shelf behind you”
Shop Assistant: “It’s not for sale.”
Woman: “Why not?”
Shop Assistant: ” That’s my Thermos flask.”
15,000 delegates and officials, 5,000 journalists and 98 world leaders and 1200 limos will be in Copenhagen this week for the biggest Global Warming Synod of all time.
About 150 private jets will be landing and all the hotels are fully-booked. It will be so crowded that some of the jets will have to fly to Sweden to park and then return later in the week to pick up their passengers.
Celebrities, film stars – even Desmond Tutu will be arriving – all want to do their bit for Global Warming – or to put it more accurately, Anthropogenic* Global Warming (AGW).
But there is a cloud on the horizon – because this is the first conference when not just the methods but the entire purpose of the climate change agenda is being questioned. Leaked emails showing key scientists conspiring to fix data that undermined their case have boosted the sceptic lobby.
The “deniers” are in town. The AGW Atheists. The Global Warming Mullahs believe that Carbon Dioxide (CO2) is the original sin which must be cast out. The deniers disagree.
The deniers say that CO2 is not pollution and that higher temperatures cause more CO2 and not the other way around. In fact, the Earth is not alone because other planets are warming just like the Earth and there were higher concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere prior to the industrial revolution.
Some “truths” are about to be dispelled and much of the pro-AGW propaganda will be exposed.
So what about those icons of AGW, – the fluffy white “endangered” polar bears? The fact is that the polar bear population has risen from 5,000 in the 1950’s to about 25,000 today. The biggest threat to polar bears was hunting (three hundred killed every year) and not water temperatures. Even if their habitat was in danger from environmental changes, they would probably adapt – just like their cousin, the brown bear. They would not be photographed looking hungry, floating along on a mini-iceberg. Google: “polar bear iceberg” and you will see how ahead of their time Fox’s Glacier Mints used to be!
So, if it isn’t CO2, what is the biggest contributor to changes in weather patterns? Solar activity has the biggest impact on the global temperature. There are many other factors, among them the Earth’s orbit, planetary wobble, volcanic activity and even shifts in the Earth’s magnetic field.
The Earth has NOT been warming over the last 8-10 years and in fact, may be entering a cooling period.
This week in Copenhagen, you will notice less talk of “Man-made” Global Warming and much more discussion on the more general topic of “Climate Change”. That’s because over 35,000 scientists disagree with the grant-dependent, politically-motivated pseudo-scientists and even some politicians are waking up from their torpor.
The so-called deniers are not anti-environment, in fact just the opposite. Hopefully money can now be spent on real environmental problems rather than fictional ones.
AGW is not about the environment, it’s about money, control and big government.
It is also about a decline in journalism and proper reporting. It is almost as if there has been blind acceptance of man-made global warming with very little counter-debate. The only British newspaper which has had the occasional “anti-AGW ” piece is the Daily Telegraph.
The other “proof” of man-made global warming is the other “cold icon” – the glacier. When you see television propaganda on melting glaciers, you usually see a video of the end of a glacier and blocks of ice breaking off into a melt lake. This is quite normal as all glaciers are constantly on the move and they usually melt at the front. A glacier is effectively a river of ice. The thing that the media tend not to show is the distance that the glacial valleys extend back up into the mountains. Glaciers can reach for miles with deep ice filling the full width of their valley . The impression normally given is of a single isolated glacier melting away. Many glaciers are melting but the degree to which the total ice field and associated glaciers are disappearing should be put into perspective.
Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) is a theory and is an unproven vtheory. Unfortunately, there have been those who presented AGW as fact, notably, self-publicists such as Al Gore. Did you know for instance that some of the sequences of melting ice-sheets in his film ” An Inconvenient Truth” were CGI and another sequence was borrowed from the film “The Day After Tomorrow.”
Finally, here are just 15 facts:
1. In the last eleven years, average annual temperatures have not surpassed those of 1998
2. Since 1988, average annual temperatures have fallen.
3. Ocean temperatures have not risen since 2000 when the three thousand Argo buoys were launched. The buoys even show a slight decrease in ocean temperatures
4. By December 2007 the Arctic ice froze to February levels and there are now 1 million more sq km of ice than before.
5. The Arctic ice is 20cm thicker than “normal”
6. All polar bear pods are stable or growing
7. Mount Kilimanjaro is not melting because of global warming
8. The Antarctic is not “melting”, it is growing in most places, the sloughing off at the edges is normal as the ice mass grows
9. The majority of the Antarctic is 8 degrees below “normal”
10. The much-publicised 0.7 degree rise in temperatures over the last 100 years has been wiped out by last years below “normal” temperatures
11. Al Gore’s film has just been declared “propaganda” in a UK court of law because many of the claims could not be substantiated
12. One of the scientists who originally thought that CO2 preceded the warming has now found with new data that the CO2 rise follows the warming
13. August 2008 was the first time since 1913 there were no sun spots.
14. The Medieval Warm Period was warmer than the 20th century
15. Many scientists are now predicting 30 years of cooling.
Most scientists agree that the Earth’s weather patterns are cyclical but several publications, including those that are “warmist” have recently written that the natural cycles of the earth may mask AGW. So, even cold can be explained in terms of AGW! The fact is that our contribution to the Greenhouse Effect (which is real) cannot even be measured.
It is unlikely that President Obama will be attending the Climate conference in Copenhagen. They say that it is because he has other things on his mind. The U.S economy is faltering, the dollar is about to “tank” and the unemployment rate has just crossed 10%. There could be another reason.
He may be one of the few world leaders who is a heretic to Man-made Global Warming. NOT Global Warming – just the Man-made bit.
Global warming is man-made. It is man-made in the same sense that Anglicanism, vegetarianism, Political Correctness and all other belief-systems are.
Yes, Man-made Global Warming is indeed anthropogenic . It only exists in the human mind and its doctrines and rituals have developed into a battle against a modern evil. Governments are gearing up for all-out war against Global Warming – a modern crusade.
Some say that we have started to battle an evil beyond our control – an evil which we have created. In the same way that Christians are born with original sin which resulted from the “Fall of Man” . Man’s industrialisation has produced ”The Fall 2″.
Man-Made Global Warming (MMGW) has all the characteristics of a religion. We have created a modern (but Godless) religion which bases its doctrines in Selective Science.
There are six main characteristics of a religion:
(1) The belief in a power beyond the individual
(2) A doctrine of salvation
(3) A code of conduct
(4) The use of sacred stories
(5) Religious rituals
(6) Intolerance of other faiths and disbelievers or “deniers”.
The essential qualities of a religion are maintained and passed from person to person by sources, called authority, which the followers accept as sacred.
Our new Global-Warming beliefs are propped up by the sharing and passing-on of superficial “knowledge” and half-truths, supposedly based in science. Selective Science.
The phrase “It is the Word of God” is now replaced by “It has been proved scientifically”.
There is a fundamental difference between Science and Religion . Science demands disbelief but Religion demands belief.
Science CHALLENGES, Religion ACCEPTS.
One hears statements about “the clash” between science and religion. There can never be a clash because they do not intersect. That is in spite of the fact that various attempts have been made to explain scientific phenomena using religion and vice-versa.
There is a very subtle aspect of science which is not always understood and that is the FACT that science does not deal with fact – it deals with observation and measurement. Science does not believe. Occasionally science accepts – but it only accepts THEORIES.
For instance we have the Theory of Evolution, Theory of Relativity, Newtons Theory of Universal Gravitation and many other THEORIES.
Whenever a MMGW Mullah tells you “These are the facts – you can’t deny facts. You have to believe the facts”, be very suspicious because it is only religion that demands “belief”. Science demands disbelief. Science does not accept – it challenges.
Science has none of the arrogance of Religion and the MMGW worshipers ARE arrogant.
In the Middle Ages, Papal indulgences were sold to absolve individuals of sin. Nowadays, we can purchase Carbon offsets to absolve ourselves. We are not purifying our souls, just the atmosphere.
Many religions demand a devil figure. The MMGW devil is Carbon Dioxide. That is a strange one because Carbon and Oxygen are the two basic components of life and ” there is substantial evidence that increases in atmospheric Carbon Dioxide produce many beneficial effects upon the natural plant and animal environments.” – that last statement is in quotes because it forms part of a petition created by Frederick Seitz in response to the 1997 Kyoto protocol. The petition was signed by 31,000 scientists and was revived last year as a counter to Al Gore’s self-serving propaganda film “An Inconvenient Truth” which was so propaganda-packed that even Leni Riefenstahl would have been proud.
The Seitz petition denies that Man is responsible for global warming.
Carbon Dioxide sits right at the front of the food chain – yet it is now vilified as “chocking”, “toxic”, “poisonous”, “killer” etc. It is truly the Devil.
A religion spreads through missionaries, evangelists and prophets. All religions have some sort of expansionary mechanism. The new evangelists are the politicians , the Cardinals and Mullahs are the Foreign Ministers and Heads of State.
Only one – the audacious Al Gore tried to seize the opportunity to become the New Messiah -but he’s been crucified.
The only thing that discredited Gore was the mistake of attempting to present scientific opinion as fact. Another user of Selective Science.
The threat of eternal damnation and the fires of hell used to frighten the masses. The long-term threat is no longer spiritual but it still involves high temperatures – it is the threat of uncontrollable Global Warming itself.
The Bible had the flood – we are going to have rising sea levels and guess what – we brought both on ourselves through our collective naughtiness. Noah built the Ark. Just watch – architects will soon be designing floating cities.
Those of you with children will know that indoctrination is now taking place in schools – and the beliefs instilled from the age of 5 or 6 will be very difficult to shift in years to come.
The human race used to be able to absorb a new religion in a matter of years. Worryingly – the same process is now completed in months.
Marxism, the political religion of the early 20th century took a decade as did Nazism. More attractive belief systems such as Scientology and Veganism caught on much faster.
The blind belief in MMGW took a couple of years to take hold and it will possess us for years to come.
Looking back through history, there are many examples of the so-called heretics who showed dissent and whose thinking did not correspond with the majority’s belief. ”Yes the earth is at the centre of the Universe!”
Here is an example of the contempt with which the Global Warming Establishment treats dissenters. Have a look at this Daily Telegraph link. The Telegraph was one of the few journals to publish anything at all about the Manhattan Declaration signed by 500 scientists in March 2008:
Worldwide, the winter of 2007/2008 was one of the most coldest and savage since records began. Even that can be explained by the Global Warming Clergy. Don’t forget : contradiction and irrationality are part of religion – they add to the “mystique”. The “facts” have to fit the belief because the belief does not always fit the facts.
Ten years ago, el Nino warmed the planet but there has been no real increase in the overall global temperature. We have seen lots of polar bears on small icebergs but no figures.
Icebergs have always been around as have hungry polar bears but nowadays, they are PROOF(!) that the planet is off to Hell on a handcart (or should that be a bandwagon?)
So the polar ice caps are melting and the sea is warmer. Some scientists believe that rising sea temperatures are cause by undersea volcanic activity. The Global Warming mullahs just laugh at such preposterous claims – even though there is data. The laugh in the same way that the Vatican laughed at Copernicus when he suggested that the Earth was not at the centre of the universe.
Surely, if any changes in weather patterns are man-made, the last ten years would have produced quite appreciable changes. India and China, (to name but two) have been burning fossil fuels like the clappers. So where are the mild winters that we were promised?
The combination of man’s overwhelming desire to believe cemented by his unbreakable and ancient herding and congregating instincts means that any counter-arguments will be ignored and mocked because “We have the facts which are ….well….FACTS. The accepted facts belong to the believers and if you don’t agree – you are not part of this congregation.”
At least the control of the masses through taxation has not changed. The Roman Catholic Church told us that if we gave money and goods to the church we would reap the reward in Heaven.
Now the principle is the same and the fiscal control isstill there but the promise is a ” better world for our children”. One presumes that “better” means cooler. Incidentally, has anyone completed the calculations so that we know exactly how many degrees less the temperature is going to be if we do as we are told? No? I thought not. What exactly did they decide at the Kyoto Synod?
Science used to be the triumph of humanity over superstition but we forgot how powerful superstition is.
Science is now hostage of the Global Warming superstition. The interesting twist is that we (the human race) have been taught that we are an eternal being. That has given us a certain degree of arrogance which in turn has made us believe that 150 years of human industrial activity has affected the 4.5 billion-year-old Earth to such an extent that there will be irreversible changes.
That’s 150 out of 4,500,000,000.
Where’s Big G when you need him?
The following article appeared in the Wall Street Journal on 27th October 2009. It is reproduced here with the kind permission of the author Brett Stephens. Brett writes the Journal’s “Global View” column on foreign affairs, which runs every Tuesday in the U.S. and is also published in the European and Asian editions of the paper. In 2004, Brett was named a Young Global Leader by the World Economic Forum, where he is also a media fellow. Continue reading Freaked Out Over SuperFreakonomics
Two executives at the Royal Bank of Scotland have been suspended after alleged corruption at its overseas mortgage operation.
The bankers were allegedly asking foreign estate agents for payments worth tens of thousands of pounds in return for referring customers. Many of the suspected practices have taken place within the last 12 months and since the government bail-out. Continue reading Joint-up Government
“Mr Griffin, stop holding that comb under you nose and do please put your arm down.”
The British are instinctively racist – and that’s in spite of enjoying what is culturally the most diverse population in the world. There has been a growing fascination with the political far-Right since Fascism’s heyday of the 1930s. Even King Edward Vlll experienced a certain “frisson” when in the company of either Adolf Hitler or Oswald Mosley. Many of England’s ruling classes found a certain glamour in their association with extremists. Continue reading Question Slime
So the Sun will not be supporting the Labour Party. No real problems there, except the usual one. Why should an Australian like Rupert Murdoch have any say in which newspaper supports which Party. The Sun is read largely by the drooling classes who are very susceptible but regrettably, there is very little that can be done. The Sun’s sister paper , the News of the World, no doubt is poised with some salacious Labour politician scandal ready-to-go.
The Sun will not just be pro-Cameron – it will be strongly anti-Gordon Brown. The Sun will do the same assassination job on Brown as it did on Neil Kinnock . The Sun has a circulation of 3 million which means a readership of about 9 million – so when the Labour Party says – ” it’s people who decide elections” – they are not really being naïve because they know deep-down that seven months of relentless mickey-taking of Gordon Brown by the Sun will have a profound effect on working class views. Remember that this is the paper that helped Margaret Thatcher to power – they’re THAT good – and relentless. Incidentally, did you know that one James Murdoch is a pal of David Cameron? Coincidence? Er…No.
Today’s Conference speeches by Ed Balls and Andy Burnham are very likely to be delivered to a near-empty Brighton Centre. Quite right too.
One hesitates to dispense advice to Labour MPs but those who are screwing either their secretaries or researchers should beware – at least until the First Thursday in May 2010. Whatever you’re doing that is naughty, illegal or vaguely interesting – stop doing it immediately. The News of the World will be releasing the hounds at any minute. For all you know, they already have their snouts in your dustbin.
Why was Gordon Brown banging-on about “change”? They’ve had 12 years. It’s a bit late with only a few months to go.
Gordon Brown has announced a referendum on how we vote in future – a subject always popular with minority parties. Which counting system will the referendum use? First Past the Post, the Single Transferable Vote or the Alternative Vote method? I think that Gordon looks like a Schulze Method man.
Good to see Martin McGuiness attending a Party at the Grand Hotel. Wouldn’t it have been ironic if someone had blown up the hotel – just like his IRA did in 1984?
350,000 old people are to receive free home help. The only good thing about that is the fact that the £400 milllion cost is being made available by cutting some “bolt-on” NHS departments such as Marketing(!) and Communications. Get rid of them anyway.
Nero’s revolving dining room has been discovered in Rome. I’ve been in lots of rotating dining rooms in my time – funnily enough, they usually begin rotating at about 11.00 p.m on a Saturday evening. We call it the “whirling pits”.
Interesting statistic which doesn’t appear to be receiving the publicity that it deserves: In the United States, a house is foreclosed or repossessed every 7.5 seconds. As usual, the politicians are taking care of business at the macro-level, while the grass-roots are burning.
It is an excellent idea for Gordon Brown to take-on the other two Party leaders in televised debates. Any future Conservative or Liberal vote should be a “pro” Conservative or Liberal vote and not an anti-Labour vote. The Labour backroom boys, led by Darth Mandelson are obviously running a campaign centred-around the comparative inexperience and youth of the other two leaders. That’s fair, because that’s exactly what the Tories did to Tony Blair in 1997. Admittedly, David Cameron and the Liberal David Whassisname look fresh and youthful compared to Brown – who currently looks as if he has been cage-fighting with his hands in his pockets but in spite of his comparative lack of political fitness, he is not to be underestimated. He will be boring but he will come out fighting. There will be blood. We’ll know by late next week whether David Cameron and George Osborne have steel and substance. Constant criticism and sniping at the Government by the Opposition is quite entertaining but when it comes to a General Election, we will need to witness views and hear policies. Having said all that, remember that PERCEPTION is king and if in spite of brand-new shiny policies from the Tories, the Labour spin machine manages to make David Cameron look like a shallow “oik” then the forthcoming election will be much closer that we currently perceive.
One of the ideas being kicked about at the moment is the saving of millions of Education pounds by cutting teaching assistant jobs in schools. In the UK there are 40,000 teaching assistants – they’re the ones who sit in the classroom with “challenged” children or take them on zoo trips. They are all very nice people, I’m sure – but a waste of money. Many of the children don’t need a glorified baby-sitter – they need specialist teaching. While we’re on the subject of cuts , I would take an immediate horizontal slice through the current Education Department bureaucracy and take-out all those school advisers – the ones in the designer suits with Series 3 BMWs. They are a waste of time but unfortunately , many are ex-teachers.
Conference time is the time when politicians churn out populist crap in order to grab newspaper headlines and cheap applause. Gordon Brown now says that he will turn 11,500 Post Offices into the “Peoples Bank”. That’s what Building Societies used to be. There was one other bank which used to be popular with the “people”. Now what was that called?…… Oh yes, it was called the Trustee Savings Bank. Whatever happened to that? Here’s a quote from Gordon: “I want the Post Office to step in to help hardworking families to save and access their money easily with banking for the people in our neighbourhoods”. If Brown thinks that he is going to create a new banking system in under eight months, then perhaps Andrew Marr was right about the happy pills. Brown is obviously playing without the full complement of marbles. Oh yes – one final thing. “Hardworking” working class families need JOBS. They rarely save their Giro cheques.
Today’s the day that Gordon Brown will either read the best speech of his life or stumble his way through the world’s most-boring and longest-ever suicide note. Whichever way it swings – there will be lots of applause, back-slapping and standing-up.
If you keep putting rats in a cage and keep adding rats, there comes a time when they start eating each other. The human equivalent is the run-down council estate. Weak rats are prey to the bigger and stronger rats. That is exactly the phenomenon which killed Fiona Pilkington and her disabled daughter Francecca. Mrs Pilkington was driven to such desperation through being goaded and verbally abused by a gang of young pikeys that she set-fire to herself and her daughter. Not the best way to die. Needless to say there will be enquiries, lessons will be learned, the Social Services will be exonerated, the Police will make excuses, the local Council will hold a press conference and make a statement. By now, the whole process is probably in an Operations Manual somewhere.
Jack Straw is surprisingly eloquent today. The trouble is that The Brighton Centre seems half-empty or as the Tories might say “half-full” or as the Liberals would say “too big”. Let’s hope it fills up when the leader performs. The Labour Party is going to play dirty this time. Straw mentioned Section 28 of the 1988 Local Government Act. This was repealed by Labour in 2000 and was the section of the 1988 Act which stated that a Local Authority “shall not intentionally promote homosexuality or publish material with the intention of promoting homosexuality”. They should stop dragging up 20-year old legislation (under which there wasn’t a single prosecution). Homosexuality is not an issue in 2009 and “New” Labour is clearly demonstrating what little legislative success it has had in the last 12 years. Occasionally they still bang-on about 13 years of Tory Rule!!! Labour should fight on current policies. By the way, when Jack sat down, the reception was at best muted, at worst underwhelming. As the spin doctors might say: He received a seated ovation.
Fiona Phillips off the telly is speaking but she is having difficulty speaking because she appears to have her tongue well-stuck up Alan Johnson’s well-groomed backside. She is acting, flicking her hair and simpering like a love-struck typist who’s just shagged the boss. At least Johnson, who looks (and sounds) more Bookie’s runner than Statesman has the good grace to look embarrassed. What the f*** was all that about? “Airhead introduces Postman Pat”?
There is one session that we presenters and speakers like to avoid – if given the choice. It is the session immediately after lunch when your audience arrives full of food and drink and whose brains are temporarily in semi-shutdown as their stomachs begin the digestion process. We call it the Graveyard Session. Wonder who’s speaking this afternoon? Oh yes! Him! Perhaps the audience needs to be semi-comatose. If it isn’t, it soon will be.
I’ve just been watching a recording of John Denham speaking at the Labour Conference. Is it me, but doesn’t he look like a Conference League Football Referee? He’s another one who disapproves of David Cameron’s “Notting Hill” Policies. All Labour speakers are talking-up the social gap between the poor and the Conservative Party. A dangerous and desperate strategy. Only Mandelson has verbally placed the Labour Party firmly in the middle of the political spectrum but he also took the opportunity to accuse the Tories of lurching to the right as soon as they are elected. The Socialists are going to defend that middle ground to the death. That is where the election will be fought. The Labour strategy appears to be to make the electorate perceive the Tories as a gang of inexperienced extreme right-wing Notting Hill hoorays.
Have you noticed how the Party that’s behind in the polls always accuses the BBC of “bias”. Today we have anti-Government bias – in the old days, under Her Thatcherness and John Major, we had BBC left-wing bias. Apparently the BBC is capable of bias in all sorts of delicious flavours and colours.
Gordon Brown has started his speech with a list of Labour achievements. That’s the first five minutes gone. He has obviously structured his speech very simply. The next list is one of his cabinet and their achievements. That will probably be another ten minutes. Luckily I have a hairdressers appointment at 3 o’clock. He’s just mentioned Northern Rock. Talking off-script? He started with a smile but has now forgotten it and his expression has returned to looking as if he’s defusing a Taliban bomb. I notice that his <pauses for applause> seem to be immediately after he has mentioned a large number of some sort and his intonation changes as if he’s saying “Crackerjack pencil! “He’s mentioned Harriet and Alistair but has now stopped naming Cabinet members. My current thought is that his speechwriters should be ritually disemboweled and fed to Darth Mandelson. His speech has now become the usual drone. As he is slagging-off the bankers, I fear that it is time to go. If you listen to his speeches, you will notice that he seldom uses adjectives or adverbs. I just killed a fly and wonder whether I should turn the Aga back on today, in spite of the sunny weather. Our field was cut a couple of days ago but I just cannot summon the energy to cut the lawn. It takes two hours. Gordon Brown is still talking. He doesn’t like banks, does he? Surprising therefore that he’s invested so much of our money in them. I’ll record it and come back later after a couple of Bushmills. He’s just used the most exciting phrase of the whole speech – Economic Model. Enough. He’s off on his pre-leaked Post Office bollocks. Low carbon Zones? He knows how to give his audience a good time.
What’s all this about “Middle England”? Why don’t they just say Northamptonshire? Or do they mean Middle Earth?
In the USA, the Federal Housing Association has a leverage ratio ( What it owes compared to what it owns) of 50-1. Interestingly, that’s just about the same as Bear Stearns had on the eve of its collapse. The FHA insures about $750 billion in mortgage debt. In the UK, “leverage” is known as “gearing”. They are both euphemisms for debt.
Have you noticed that the £-Sterling is just about to achieve parity with the Euro?
An ASBO is an Anti-Social Behaviour Order and it is usually given out to pikeys and their parents. The trouble is that most of them are so thick that they probably think that an ASBO is a qualification which will be worth a few points on their UCAS form when they go to University to study demolition or vehicle hotwiring. I’ve just seen some ASBO-pikeys being interviewed and it seems that the sub-species favours a single earring and a tattooed neck (men) and the women have to be very fat with bleached hair. Their natural habitat is either a bus shelter or a stained sofa which faces a television. They only eat orange-coloured food – as long as it doesn’t contain fruit or vegetables.
Just saw a re-run of Sarah Brown introducing Gordon. She was good. She will be a major Labour weapon in the forthcoming General Election. I wonder if David Cameron’s wife Samantha is taking Powerpoint and sincero-talk lessons?
Excellent headline grabbing by that jug-eared gargoyle Andrew Marr. He is without doubt a supreme journalist but his questioning of Gordon Brown yesterday was inexcusable. Suggesting that Brown needs prescription drugs to get through the day, followed by Brown’s admission that he has trouble with his eyesight was a direction that no journalist should steer. There is a real danger that if the Tory Press goes down the ” Brown’s a sick man and therefore unfit for office” route, there will be a swell of pro-Brown sympathy. Then, if the Socialists succeed in portraying the Tory Shadow Cabinet as a bunch of hoorays lounging about in the senior common room with David Cameron as a self-serving Head Boy, there is a very real possibility that Labour will retain office. Undecided voters are driven by PERCEPTION and not by policies or past performance. Remember John Major’s victory in 1992? He was behind in the polls, yet in that year claimed the most votes in British electoral history. Leading up to the 1992 election, Labour had been ahead in the polls since 1989 plus the economy had entered a recession under the Tories. Yet Major won and remained in power until 1997. He won because the electorate liked him and thought that Neil Kinnockwasaprat. Nothing to do with policies.
Alistair Darling is going to deliver his usual speech on bank bonuses. “Clawback”, “Unacceptable” “Deferred” etc.will all make their appearances – as they have done for many months. Alistair Darling will “pledge” to clean-up the banking industry. The proposed Fiscal Responsibility Act sounds like another focus group creation and no doubt, there will be another Financial Services Act close on its heels. He is obviously working on the principle of “If you can’t win the argument – legislate”. It’s all a monumental waste of time but look on the bright side – we will be living in a society where the highest earners are footballers and pop singers. Something which our children can really aspire-to.
Gordon Brown says that he won’t ”roll over”. I do wish that his speechwriters would give him words that he is comfortable with. What’s next? “I ain’t goin’ to be no Tory dude’s bitch. Shabba”?
Roman Polanski arrested on a 31-year-old warrant. Apparently in 1978 there was a plea-bargain andhewasto receive a nominal sentence if he pleaded “guilty”. The judge then reneged on the deal so Polanski absconded. Originally, Polanski has been charged with rape by use of drugs, perversion, sodomy, lewd and lascivious act upon a child under 14 but the plea-bargain reduced the charges to a single charge ofunlawful sex with a minor. Polanski was six years old when WW2 broke out and like many Polish children who grew-up during the war, he was damaged. Add to this the horrors of the Manson murders and the killing of his pregnant wife, Sharon Tate, it is doubtful whether Polanski has ever been in what we might call a normal psychological state. However, the fact remains that he did horrible things to a 13 year-old girl and is a convicted criminal who probably still poses a danger. There is no Statute of Limitations for this type of crime but as his victim has forgiven him and so much time has passed, one hopes that the high-level diplomatic activity currently taking place will result in some sort of amnesty. There should be a White House statement soon.
The next Labour Prime Minister is the new the darling of Conference. Yes, Peter Mandelson earned a standing ovation and became the Labour Party joker today after delivering an appalling speech. He stumbled over the funny lines, his timing was out and his voice was its usual oleaginous drawl. However, the Conference highlight up to that point had been Alistair Darling and had it not been for Mandelson, they audience would have been engaging in synchronised self-harming. That’s how dire it had been. He is going to extend the scrappage scheme <applause>. Sadly, he appeared to be talking about motor cars and not the Cabinet. The scrappage scheme will keep the Japanese, German and Korean car industries going for a couple more months so let’s hope that their own governments can take over soon after that.
Tomorrow Gordon Brown is widely expected to give “the speech of his life”. That good eh? He’s probably in his hotel room practicing by reading the instructions on his Corby trouser press – that’s just about the level of excitement that he’ll generate tomorrow. But the Labouristas will clap and there will be a standing ovation. Is it true that the conference-hall doors lock from the outside?
Alistair Darling’s speech also had all the excitement of a talk on basket-weaving at the local WI . He obviously had gaps in his script indicating <pause for audience reaction>. Unfortunately, the pauses were more exciting and informative than the text. As expected he did some pointless macho posturing on the subject of bank bonuses – in the certain knowledge that the whole thing will be picked up by “Boy” George Osborne and lost in the mountain of unfinished business that Labour will leave behind in the May 2010 rush to clear their desks.
The British Frigate IRON DUKE scored a decent stash of Colombian Marching Powder, weighing 5.5 tons with a street value of £250,000,000. Apparently , the fishing boat containing the stuff was sailing erratically and suspiciously. That’s Coke for you! The only worry is that instead of sinking the boat WITH the cargo, the frigate is now taking the cargo to New York. Let’s hope that H.M.S Iron Duke doesn’t sail up 34th Street all shiny-eyed and twitchy to tie-up outside Macy’s.
Just down the road in Brighton THEY are arriving for the Labour Party Conference – or should that be the New Labour Party Conference. Did we elect Labour or NEW LABOUR? Anyway, that’s now just a technicality or a long-forgotten dream of how things could or might have been. Here’s a Labour FACT, given to me by a friend who used to be Chief Barman at the Grand Hotel. More Champagne is consumed at the Labour Party Conference than at all other conferences and he told me stories of vintage Champers being quaffed – not from a young lady’s glass slipper but from PINT jugs. If I recall correctly, that particular incident involved a gang (?) of Trade Unionists. Now THAT’S Socialism.
You know things are bad within the Labour Party when John Prescott begins to look like a Statesman (comparatively speaking). When Johno was Deputy Prime Minister, he used to deliver those grammar-free rabble-rousing “calls to arms” which could have been such fun if we’d understood what he was talking about. This year it’s Harriet’s turn and it won’t be the same. It will be the difference between a drug-crazed, alcohol-fuelled multi-position shagfest anddoingitquietly, Missionary-style with the lights out.
Gordon Brown is to introduce a law which is currentl;y being referred-to as the Fiscal Responsibility Act (FSA) (running out of ideas,perhaps?).The Act will oblige all future Governments to reduce the country’s borrowing by a set minimum amount. Needless to say, the amount and timescale are yet to be decided – probably a commission or enquiry… So what will happen if a Government fails to repay the minimum amount in a given year? A fine? Arrests? I suggest firing squads.
The Labour spin doctors have decided that David Cameron will be portrayed as a shallow toff – a script and autocue-reading “hooray”. Normally, that would upset the Tories but then they remembered the alternative.
Quote from Gordon Brown: “By 2015 we want our country to be fairer, greener, more prosperous and democratic.” Seems to me that we have several Labour admissions in that sentence.
Lord “Darth” Mandelson has referred to David Cameron as “hugely arrogant”. Not really much more to say on that one.
Mandelson has said that he believes that the forthcoming election is “up for grabs”. Yes it is – by the Tories.
Great interview in the Sunday Mirror today. Vincent Ross interviews Mandelson and re-defines the phrase “butt-kisser”. Perhaps a spin-job awaits at No.10?
Iran is launching missiles today. So, they have missiles and they’re developing the capacity to stick nuclear warheads at the missiles’ sharp-end. I am now off to have another “No shit, Sherlock” moment. I shall report when I’ve worked it all out.
Why are the authorities making such heavy-weather of Baroness Scotland and “CLEANERGATE”. If they announced an amnesty for all illegals, they would have to hire at least one Wembley Stadium to fit them all into. Leave the Baroness and her cleaner alone. Is it because she’s clever, female, attractive and black? Mind you, she is Labour. See what you mean.
Ken Livingston has just married. At London Zoo. There are some things which are way, way beyond parody.
“I want this so badly” “It’s been a great journey for me” “Singing is my life” ” I’m doing this for my (sob) brother/mother/ sister etc” and ” I’m sure he’s looking down on me” The last one is about Simon Cowell. He’s not dead – just incredibly condescending.
Great quote from Strictly Come Dancing’s Brendan “Shagger” Cole on Jo Wood. ” One of Jo’s big strengths is that she’s alive.”Considering how long she lived with Ronnie Wood- it has to be worth a mention and maybe a box of chocolates. We all hope that Ronnie Wood is reunited with Jo as soon as possible-he is currently risking his life. Some of those Russian girls will do anything for a bowl of Borsch and clean sheets. Anything.
In 2008, the NHS collected £112 million in parking charges. With such figures, perhaps the NHS should concentrate on parking and stop the healing and surgery activities which probably distract them from where the REAL profits are. Perhaps a joint-venture with NCP beckons? Worryingly, £28 million was collected from its own staff. It’s a great wheeze. Tax the sick, tax their families and tax those who look after them. Who helped with the Business Model? Gordon Brown?
The American Fed has issued the following statement: “To provide support to mortgage lending and housing markets, and to improve overall conditions in private credit markets, the Federal Reserve will purchase a total of $1.25 trillion of agency mortgage-backed securities and up to $200 billion of agency debt.” Now we can watch the demise of the once-mighty American Dollar. Fund Managers and Investors will now start dumping dollars like confetti. A TRILLION is a million millions and in this case, it represents more Quantitative Easing or to be strictly accurate, the purchase of toxic assets with “printed” i.e non-existent money. The sort that caused the global banking meltdown. This is a case of throwing bad money after bad.
President Obama has announced tough new capital requirements for banks as well as more stringent rules on bank borrowings. If you were to ask what these rules are likely to be or when they are to be implemented, the answer would probably be “We haven’t really decided but it will definitely happen later.” They are saying that the rules will be phased-in once financial conditions improve and recovery is “assured”. Leaders have been discussing a cap on bank bonuses for a while but they still haven’t agreed any numbers or timescale. The only thing that they have agreed is that bonus payments should not be guaranteed for many years, should be deferred in part and should not exceed a percentage of the bank’s revenue. That is how vague it is at the moment. When the global economy has healed itself and both governments and banks return to generating profits, most of this will be forgotten because by then, the balance of power will, once again have shifted back towards the banks and the next boom-bust cycle will begin.
The least entrepreneurial profession of all is banking. There is a vastly different mental attitude between say, an entrepreneur such as Richard Branson and say, MervynKing, the Governor of the Bank of England. That rule works all the way down the line until we have the small local businessman and the small-town banker. Chalk and Cheeze. Incidentally, when I say “entrepreneurial” – I am referring to people who take risks with their own assets. Just to reinforce the cultural difference – bankers will gladly take risks with other people’s money – especially in very large amounts – as evidenced by the cause of the current Global Banking crisis. However, when a local business goes to its local bank in order to borrow say £20,000 to purchase a machine, lots of fiery hoops are assembled for the business to jump through, fees are charged, personal guarantees are demanded, forms need to be filled out, cash flows and business plans are sought . So when a small businessman goes to his bank – the MOST likely answer (especially nowadays) in “NO”. Perhaps unknowingly, the banking profession is not-only killing itself but it is also slow-strangling the business community. The banker chose to work in a bank because he didn’t want the worry of not having a pay cheque at the end of the month, he did not want to work a 16-hour day and he didn’t want to cold-call people in order to drive his business forward. What he needed from his life was predictability, order, neatness and a company pension. This is the paradox: The banking profession has managed to evolve itself into something which it was not designed to be and it has managed to do it by what is known as the “Halo Effect”. There is a saying “Get them by the balls and their hearts and minds are bound to follow.” Banks now have “business advisers” ; mostly young people with degrees who cannot possibly have ever tasted the fears of an entrepreneurial businessman. Bank management has developed a culture of self-importance and inaccessibility. Remember the time when a bank manager tried to impress you in order to win your business? Now , you have to ask him to welcome you to his club so that he can look after your money. He is now doing YOU a favour – unless it’s ” I’d love to help you but the System ( or those upstairs) say “NO”. The banking tentacles have moved further into he business community. Local Enterprise Organisations and Business Clubs are now both Governed and heavily populated by more bankers. Entrepreneurial andmanagementadviceisbeingdispensed by a profession with little or no practical or first-hnd business experience or knowledge. That is the Halo Effect. Put simply, because the banker knows about money and has you by the balls, you assume automatically that he is able to dispense Tax Advice, Marketing Advice, Sales Advice, Organisational Advice, Training Advice, Recruitment Advice, Purchasing Advice and any other Advice that you need. The total power of the banking community is evidenced by the fact that Chancellors, Prime Ministers and even Presidents are having to say “Please do something about your bonuses Mister Banker.” Banking has developed into a multi-headed all-powerful Frankenstein. It is not a simple case of imposing a few rules. What is really needed is a massive cultural change within the banking industry and a massive perceptual change from both private and business clients. If you’re a businessman or work for yourself in any way, ask yourself – ” Am I comfortable with taking business or financial advice and all the other captive-audience advice that they like to dish-out, from an organisation populated by people who obviously did not heed their own advice and lost billions but have no idea what really happened?” WATCH THIS SPACE.
I received a letter from a Member of Parliament today. He addressed me by my Christian Name. What’s going on? Paranoid? Moi?
The airlines appear to be learning from the banks. British Airways will be charging us again AFTER they have our business. We book a flight and then pay an additional fee to get a seat. Genius! Can you bring your own seat and pay corkage?
There’s only one thing wrong with an Indian Summer. The Global Warming Mullahs will wake from their torpor and deliver the usual speech about our emissions. I think that 4X4 vehicles should be compulsory. Have to go now and have my dolphin steaks and light the coal fire.
In the last two years, 150 teachers have been sacked for sexual misconduct. A loss to the teaching profession but what a bonus for the Vatican’s recruitment team!
Gordon Brown has been voted World Statesman of the Year – mostly for giving away any leftover taxpayers’ money that Mervyn King has not given to the banks. Brown has been generous to Africa and quite right too. In addition, he has enjoyed many politicians’ or Pope’s ultimate wet-dream. An embrace from Bonio who , apart from being big in the dog-biscuit trade, is (apparently) some sort of Irish pop singer. He plays in a popular beat combo named after some American spy-plane. U2, I think. Crucial.
Remember Gordon Brown selling off the UK’s gold to China a few years ago? Who better to value, melt-down anddoitallover again with that pile of gold Anglo-Saxon tat recently dug up in Staffordshire – wherever that is. Middle Earth?
There’s a very exclusive TV Club – the old dears who used to read the news and appeared on the Christmas Morecambe and Wise show in the 50s and who did high kicks andeithermarriedapolicemanorshagged Jon Snow or went to live on a farm in Scotland. Pretty soon, the pre-teens running the BBC andthecommercialchannel will be playground-bullied into re-hiring these venerable oldsters. Prepare for News at Ten to look like a re-run of Macbeth, Act 1 Scene 1.
In 1959, Typhoon Vera struck Nagoya in Japan. There was a 20 ft tsunami, 150 mph winds and 5000 people died. Did you know that they managed ALL that without Global Warming! They could do stuff like that in the 50s. We have a lot to learn.
TV’sDoctorGorgeousappearedtohaveeverything – but he was struck by the one affliction that even he could not cure. He lost the ability to keep it in his trousers. Marriage, Mistress, Divorce, Mistress, two-timed Mistress, Girlfriend. Best of luck mate. The definitive case of “Surgeon heal Thyself”.
In an average week, I speak to 5 or 6 Chief Executives – guys I’ve either trained, coached or who I know personally. This week I had the most weird experience with a company CEO and company owner. He fancies himself as a “leader” but is just realising that he has recently reached the upper limits of his incompetence. The stress-levels are phenomenal and I shall devote a whole article to him next week. Look out for it – it WILL be libellous!
Fantastic evening for crumblies. ITV is celebrating 250 years of Cliff Richard. He hasn’t changed one bit – apart from wearing Frankie Howard’s old rug. Well, it’s either that or a very quiet ginger cat.
Friday September 25th 2009
The mole who leaked the MPs’ expenses information to the Daily Telegraph has revealed what motivated him to do so – apart that is, from the £110,000 fee that he was paid. It now appears that his primary motivation was not money but the fact that serving soldiers were “moonlighting” at the House of Commons. They were working in the Security department and protecting the Civil Servants who were dealing with confidential matters – one of which was Members’ expenses. Apparently, it wasn’t long before the soldiers realised the extent and extravagance of MPs’ expenses and so glimpsed the comparative opulence and excesses of the politicians’ lifestyles. The very people who represented them and who had sent them abroad to be shot at. The sums of money involved in the claims that they either saw or were told about were further amplified by the fact that the soldiers were doing this extra work in order to buy decent boots and body protectors and other items which would make their soldiering duties easier and safer. It is currently very easy for us to feel very emotional when they hear stories such as this – but we should proceed with extreme caution because it now seems that the mole is trying to justify his actions in leaking the information. He appears to be telling us that he now feels vindicated because of the “poor” soldiers and because MPs have to-date returned over £500,000 in mis-claimed expenses. Planes bearing dead blown-to-bits soldiers, processions through Wootton Bassett and full-page photographs of a recently mutilated soldier paying his last respects to his blown-up dead buddy certainly do tug at the heart-strings. Great propaganda andimmaculatetimingbyourmole. Now the facts: The mole received £110,000 pounds from a right-wing paper. Currently each soldier receives Osprey lightweight body armour and£3500 – worth of state-of-the-art equipment – including boots and shoes. The mole’s motives for leaking the information would not be in question had he not accepted such a large amount of money – which one presumes has been donated to the Army Benevolent Fund. I am not a great supporter either of this Government or of the pointless shenanigans in Afghanistan but sometimes there are over-sugared pills which are just too difficult to swallow.
One question remains: Why were security men -serving soldiers or not- allowed to either view or be given confidential information.
China , India and Brazil are to play a more prominent part in G20 and will also have more IMF votes. Currently, China wields 3.7% of IMF votes compared with France’s 4.9%, although the Chinese economy is now 50% larger than that of France and in spite of the fact that China has over 20 Provinces which each has a population greater than that of France. This looks very much like the dawn of the Eastern or New economies and the inevitable sunset for the once all-powerful West. Regrettably, not only is it a question of size and manufacturing power but the West is currently “in hock” to China. Chinese and Indian savers enabled all of us to be borrowers. Now economists are saying that the East has to create the same free-spending and borrowing consumer society that we have enjoyed for so many years: just look where WE are now! Are we really so well-placed as to be dispensing economic advice?
Another New Labour piece of legislation which has been languishing in the long grass for a while is the changing or possibly the removal of the Statutory Retirement Age. It is a shame that there are ex-teachers, ex-managers, ex-engineers who happen to be over 65 and who are now either shelf-stacking, working at B&Q or watching Countdown. What a waste. The Government says that the matter will be dealt-with in 2010, in other words, by the Tories. Meanwhile, at least 300 over 65s are taking ex-employers to Tribunals and yet again, lawyers have become involved. That is New Labour’s one big success – through their intransigence and incompetence, they have produced the best-ever Lawyer Job-Creation Scheme. The Brits have always been obsessed with 65 being their time to stop work, relax, take long holidays etc. Unfortunately in many cases it’s retire, sit around for a bit, die. We are changing as a nation and it is not purely because of the recession or plundered company pension schemes that people wish to carry-on working. Our “retirement mentality” has gradually been disappearing and people genuinely WANT to work for as long as they can. OK, there are very physical jobs where at age 65, you’re clapped-out. For instance, building, mining or farming. You can punish your body to such an extent that by the time you are 50, you start looking forward to the day when you can stop. However, nowadays many of us are engaged in non-physical work which means that we SHOULD be as fit at 65 as we were at 45. Policies should not be driven by a Government with one eye on unemployment statistics because as usual, public opinion is against them. It’s now time for the Statutory Retirement Age to be abolished.
Iran is the world’s fourth-biggest oil producer. No wonder they need to make such a vast investment in nuclear energy. You never know! Or, could it be that the Mullahs want to produce nuclear warheads in order obliterate Israel and/or the USA. That’s not possible because the Koran says that Muslims want us all to be their chums. Here are three quotes directly from the Koran (or Quran if you know your Peking from your Beijing). Here goes: “O you who believe! do not take the Jews and the Christians for friends; they are friends of each other; and whoever amongst you takes them for a friend, then surely he is one of them; surely Allah does not guide the unjust people.” (5.51) or :“So when you meet in battle those who disbelieve, then smite the necks until when you have overcome them, then make (them) prisoners, and afterwards either set them free as a favor or let them ransom (themselves) until the war terminates.” (47.4) or “The punishment of those who wage war against Allah and His apostle and strive to make mischief in the land is only this, that they should be murdered or crucified or their hands and their feet should be cut off on opposite sides or they should be imprisoned; this shall be as a disgrace for them in this world, and in the hereafter they shall have a grievous chastisement” (5.33) As I said – nothing to worry about. They’re just misunderstood. Talk of fundametalist Muslims being a bunch of fanatical murdering misogynist psychos is very naughty. They want to love us – as we love them. It says so in the Quran. Let them build their nuclear power stations bombs. It’s for our own good. Just think about all that cheap electricity.
Nearly forgot: “O Prophet! urge the believers to war; if there are twenty patient ones of you they shall overcome two hundred, and if there are a hundred of you they shall overcome a thousand of those who disbelieve, because they are a people who do not understand.” (8.65)
The often misunderstood and misinterpreted thing which suggests that when a Muslim blows himself up for the cause , he will be rewarded in Paradise with 40 virgins to shag (presumably) -is wrong. Martyrs in Islam are classified as people who die for their religion whereas people who blow themselves up for women are dying for their own lusts. It’s Hell for them. Presumably you need to die with a hard-on. Not impossible – many men do, apparently.
These are Iran’s main Nuclear sites:
The Government has criticised the Football Association for not reforming itself. It has also asked the F.A to spend more time and resources on ethnics and women as well as telling them that they should provide better leadership. Perhaps when the F.A has completed its restructuring it can then give H.M Government a few tips. Talk about Pot-Kettle.
A recent U.S survey shows that many Americans think that Tony Blair is the British Prime Minister. Someone ought to tell them who the real UK Prime Minister is. Darth Mandelson.
Mandelson has been quoted as saying that Gordon Brown ought to “lighten up” a bit. Not THAT smile again PLEASE!!!! NOOOO!!!
What is it about meetings beginning with a “G”? Why is our expectation level do low? Is it because we know that the post-meeting statement has already been written? Is it because all previous meetings were such a monumental waste a waste of resources, time and money? Anyway – who DOES write that n-page statement which announces the next meeting in 6 months? Gordon Brown’s LAST such meeting.
Is it true that Obama snubbed Gordon Brown? Obama has had one-on-one meetings withotherleaders. Why not with our own Prime Minister? Is it because of the Megrahi affair or could it be because of the increasingly prominent sell-by date on Gordon Brown’s forehead?
Banks are currently reducing their assets and hoarding cash because of liquidity requirements. Put in simple terms, that means that the magic conjured-up money – the so-called Quantitative Easing is making it in through the banks’ back doors but the front doors remain only slightly ajar. READ REST OF ARTICLE
In 1998, the Saville Inquiry began its investigations into the shooting of 29 Civil Rights protesters by soldiers of the 1st Battalion of the British Parachute Regiment. Five protesters were shot in the back and two injured protesters were run down by Army vehicles. Fourteen people died. This was the Bloody Sunday Massacre which took place on 30th January 1972 in Derry. The original Widgery Tribunal concluded that the soldiers actions could be best described as “bordering on the reckless” . Unsurprisingly, the Widgery report was widely regarded as a whitewash. Hence the Saville Inquiry. Now we hear that the Saville Inquiry will report in March 2010!!! Apparently, there’s a printing issue that needs to be resolved. Once again , this 11-year inquiry brings into focus two great British institutions – queueing and inquiries. Not to mention a steady income for a whole “shark” of lawyers.
The anniversary of Lehman Brothers going down the toilet has passed anditisnowayearsincethesolidsreallyhitthe air-conditioning big time. For those who do not really understand finance – and who really does these days, here’s the deal. Politicians and bankers knew for at leat 18 months before the collapse that there was not enough cash in the system andthatmost, if not ALL banks were now standing on foundations of sand. It was only when Lehman had to admit that there was no real money – only paper ” instruments” which could be worth cash , that it was realised that the real currency that the banks had been dealing-in was bullshit and promises. Politicians are now beginning to strike heroic poses as they tell us how they saved the banking system and that they only-just managed to avert a financial Armageddon. The real fact is that they knew what was happening all along and lived in the HOPE that somehow (they did not know how), the financial system would self-adjust or self-regulate itself back to stability . It didn’t and the solution that is being applied today is exactly the same as that which caused the collapse. Imaginary money. Eighteen months ago, bankers and politicians were HOPING that the system would sort itself out and that is EXACTLY what they are hoping for today. What is really needed is a total restructuring of the banking system but there isn’t the global political will to make that first all-important move.
There’s a (denied) rumour that Gordon Brown is going blind. Obviously we all hope that he is not. In spite of the fact that he has all the leadership qualities of damp Kleenex, he is a decent man. The rumour that he is blind has obviously been started by someone who is confusing his eyesight with his policies and management style.
Apparently, there is a small but statistically significant rise in patient deaths when junior doctors start work in August. Perhaps the same survey should be done with slightly different parameters: Before pubs open and after closing time.
A friend sent me a cartoon yesterday which, for the first time, explained the constant Midde East conflict . Jewish man looking up at the sky saying, “Now, let me get this straight God. The Arabs get the oil and you want us to cut the end off our what….?”
This snippet explains better than anything the anonymous nature of the Liberals’ leader. Nick Clegg will be delivering the Leader’s rabble-rousing Conference for the THIRD time!! He will attempt to come cross as a TOUGH leader. Doesn’t compute, does it? He always looks as if he’s just taken a “NICE” pill.
Justin-lee Collins has said what many are thinking: Bruce Forsyth should have stopped TV presenting three or four years ago. There’s a touch of the Emperor’s New Clothes about the whole thing. So much so that no-one appears willing to say ” Brucie, you are now coming across as an old twat. Piss off”. Instead the poor old bugger is being patronised, allowed to be unfunny (obviously from the tumbleweed school of humour) and worst of all, he’s being referred-to as “sprightly”.An adjective every man dreads because it is THE word which signifies the beginning of the end. It is NOT a compliment. It means that you are past-it and when you attempt to tap dance avec embarrassing Sammy Davis Jr-esque gurning, you look like a swinging cadaver with a ferret up a wet trouser leg.
I have just discovered that Chas & Dave have split up. p.s. I am writing this on Beachy Head.
Kristna Rihanoff whose Strictly Come Dancing partner is Joe Calzaghe celebrated her birthday yesterday. Rumour has it that Joe and Kristina have grown very close. I wonder whether he had any difficuty in wrapping her present?
More meaningless military “sincero-talk”today. Acting Sergeant Michael Lockett was blown up by a roadside bomb in Helmand Province. “There’s now a gap in our ranks that will be so very difficult to fill” and “Sgt Lockett’s raw bravery and seflessness cost hm his life but undoubtedly saved that of one of his soldiers.” are just two more examples from the Army Book of Fine Words. Meaningless twaddle. Sgt Locketthas left behindastrickengirlfriend and three children aged eight, seven and five. “We take solace in the fact that he died doing a job he was born to do” was more puke-inducing bollocks – this time from his father. Stop this pseudo-heroic crap and bring ALL of our young soldiers back here to the United Kingdom, where they belong. The Taliban certainly do not see these young soldiers as heroes – more like fairground ducks.
When will the Vatican be called to account over the tens of thousands of children that have been abused by pervert priests? The Catholic Church has been accused at the United Nations Human Rights Council of a systematic and long-standing cover-up. The Vatican is in breach of its obligations under the United Nations Convention on the Rights of the Child. Handing out MILLIONS in compensation is really not the way forward. It’s customary to pay for sex up-front , not ten, twenty or thirty years after the event. Let us hope that one day there will be a time when the Vatican can close its child-abuse fund and get on with the business of religion.
Nothing about Gordon Brown today because he hasn’t said anything new or original. Situation normal.
Did you see Darth Mandelson being questioned on the subject of bankers’ bonuses last night? As Business Secretary, he has the power to stop the bankers in their tracks. But he cannot and he would not answer any bonus-related questions.
General Stanley McChrystal, the top US commander in Afghanistan has warned that the war there could be lost unless there is an increase in troops within a year. He is asking for an additional 30,000 troops. This is truly developing into another Vietnam. Currently, there are 100,000 troops in Afghanistan, 62,000 of whom are American. Time to talk.
The United Kingdom is needlessly wasting resources by sending too many average and some downright thick students to University. In fact, there are too many Universities. Hence the current funding crisis. The solution is so simple that even an Education Minister ought to be able to work it out.
The worldwide recession and the resulting drop in consumer demand has had a profound effect on industrial production. That has had an unexpectedly welcome effect on greenhouse gas emission – it has fallen by over 40%. Perhaps the Global Warming Mullahs will take this opportunity to shut up.
Anish Kapoor, the 1991 Turner Prize winner has a solo exhibtion the Royal Academy. This event is unusual because Anish lacks the traditional qualification for such a exhibition. He isn’t dead. If you enjoy abstract sculpture and/or you like spouting pretentious arty bollocks, then this exhibition is for you. Here’s a nosegay from Anish himself: “That sense of the poem being put together as word objects relates to sculpture in a very fundamental way. Sculpture also has this ability to be what it isn’t. It’s kind of about the illusory and the real.”Quite. Anish is very keen on vaginas so do look out for the odd wobbly red letterbox shape.
The media seem surprised that construction companies and builders have been ripping-off Local Authorities and other organisations which are spending other peoples’ money. It’s been going on for years. This is from April 2008 – CLICK HERE– and it includes a scene from the Coconut Club, which you will be hearing more and more about over the next few weeks.
This week is Climate Week – a crucial week in the quest for a global climate deal. World leaders are meeting at the UN in New York and a G20 summit in Pittsburgh. Meetings such as this have been going on for a few years now so let us hope that the current series of meetings produces something that has been sadly missing from previous encounters. Action. In December the Copenhagen environmental conference will hopefully be the real turning point and turn meetings into agreements into action.
Global Warming: Predictions are made using computer models and although the general consensus is that Global Warming is occurring, there are scientists (the so-called “deniers”) who have alternative models which suggest that the Earth will cool before its becomes hotter. Regrettably, the religious-like aspects of Global Warming, treat scientists who deny Global Warming as heretics who are often lampooned andmarginalisedby both the scientific and political communities. The latest of these is a Professor Mojib Latif, from the Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences at Kiel, who has suggested that the long-term warming trend could be masked – perhaps for as long as 10 or 20 years – by a temporary cooling caused by natural fluctuations in currents and temperatures called the NorthAtlanticOscillation. It all seems to depend on which set of data is plugged into which computer model. However, it is the politicians who are the true believers who only appear to read data which supports their dogma.
Helen Goddard , music teacher has been jailed for 15-months as the result of a lesbian affair with a 15-year-old pupil. How modern. Not nice – but definitely “of the age”.
Rumour has it that Louis Walsh, the Irish spud and pop manager from the X-factor is going under the knife in order to improve his looks. There must be a long queue of knife-sharpening volunteers. Surprising that he hasn’t yet benefited from sitting so close to that pair of BotoxedBookends – Simon Cowell and Danni Minogue – by osmosis.
Sir Bobby Robson’s Memorial service must have been an ordeal for Paul Gascoigne. There was only one photo of Gazza that the snappers wanted – and they got it.
This is the sort of medical research that we like: If you have alcohol in your bloodstream, you are far less likely to die from a head injury, says Dr Ali Salim from Los Angeles. The findings are based on a 5-year study of 38,000 people. You can’t be too careful. Cheers.
Nothing in the Press about Jordan today. Max Clifford must be on a long weekend break.
Attorney-General Baroness Scotland is still facing an uncertain future. Gordon Brown, her boss is being his usual decisive self. This is what he said this morning: “We will have to find out what has actually happened and I will have to wait for that report this morning and she will want to answer the questions that are put to her. We will have to make decisions.” Brown obviously has not been watching the news or reading his Daily Worker. The fact is that Baroness Scotland employed someone who did not have authorisation to work in the United Kingdom. In fact, her papers expired five years ago. As usual, the long grass is quivering in anticipation.
It now appears that Womens World 800m champion Caster Semenya was tested ages ago and there has been concern over her sex for months. The issue did not suddenly materialise at the last Word Championships. The whole thing has been handed so badly that there is every likelihood of IAAF resignations.
Baroness Scotland will probably resign this week. If every politician who made a mistake resigned, Westminster would be empty by now.
It looks as if Megrahi is going to be the first criminal to be retried on the Internet. We’re still awating an intervention from God and the miracle recovery. There has been one previous miraculous recovery by a convicted criminal. Ernest Saunders (1980s Guinness Scandal) was freed by a judge because he was suffering from Alzheimer’s. So far, Ernest Saunders in the first and only recorded case of a total recovery from Alzheimer’s. The recovery took place soon after he was released from jail. Speaking of miraculous recoveries – Ronnie “released on compassionate grounds” Biggs has been seen out and about on his mobility scooter. Megrahi or Biggs? I’m off to Ladbrokes to make a small investment.
The Liberals are having their occasional rush of blood and putting themselves forward as a party of government. Remember David Steel in 1981? “Go back to your constituencies and prepare for government.” Forget it boys and girls. There’s Vince Cable and Norman Baker and after that it all becomes a bit anonymous. Nick who?
The Liberals want to tax home owners whose properyis worth in excess of a million. They will be the only Party whose policies will be derailed by a property crash andonthatbasisalone, this policy has the depth and solidity of a closing-time back-of-a-beermat “I really lovvve you” concept. They’re not sponsored by the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors, are they? This new policy is the Liberals’ biggest-ever lurch to the left. The sort of thing that New Labour would have done when they were Proper Labour.
The elephant in the room – the one that no-one is talking about is still there. I am of course referring to the economy.
Several big companies, including a couple of large builders as well as the Royal Bank of Scotland will be coming to market very soon to raise many billions. Watch those share prices. Here we go again.
Have you noticed how Kerry Katona’s nose is looking more and more like Danniella Westbrook’s last nose-but-one?
The Education bods are gettinng a bit twitchy at Ed Balls’ suggestions of swingeing cuts in Education. It is the designer-suited BMW-driving “advisers” at County Hall who should think twice before renewing their gym membership or booking that holiday in Tuscany. CLICK HERE
I did not see Alesha Dixon’s debut on Strictly Whatsit but it sounds as if she had a list of pre-prepared crap written down, dispensed it quite randomly and personalised it by adding bad grammar.
Rules are being published this week which will exempt family and friends from being prosecuted after assisting in a suicide. It is purely coincidental that these rules are being rushed through just before Gordon Brown’s conference speech.
Manchester City manger Mark Hughes is complaining that too much time was added on at the endofyesterday’sderbygame with Mancheser United. Michael Owen scored Man Utd’s winning goal in he 97th minute. Hughes forgets that his team had the identical extra time in which to score.
Friday September 18th 2009
- There has been some concern that Romell Broom may have suffered mental anguish when two Ohio State officials failed to find a vein in order to deliver a fatal injection. According to Broom’s lawyer, Broom had suffered both “mental and physical injuries” and apparently became distressed and appeared to cry. Broom was convicted of raping and then killing a 14 year-old girl.
- We’re too fat, we drink too much alcohol, we’re unfit, we ingest female hormones in our meat and weedkillers from our vegetables and we’re too stressed. Paradoxically, our life expectancy is increasing.
Alistair Darling is engaged in a series of meetings in order to decide where spending cuts can be made. If you’re expecting decisions within the next few months – stop being so silly. Although professional pundits do now have the opportunity to make pointless predictions.
Andy Burnham is suggesting yet more NHS changes. The God of Change strikes again! This month’s idea is that we will all be able to choose our GP. I would like one that’s qualified, understands human anatomy and is sober.
Baroness Scotland should know that in a Court of Law, ignorance is no defence. Mind you, the Baroness is the Attorney General. Hopefully, hiring someone called Loloahi Tapui(clue!) with out-of-date papers was just an oversight and as such, does not generate a witch-hunt. Oh yes – there’s an enquiry. There’s always a feckin’ enquiry.
Suddenly, Jordan doesn’t want to talk about “the rape”. It seems that her PR people are running out of interesting stories. The only remaining possbilities are either ” I was abused as a child” or “I was abducted by aliens”.
Bit of a “to-do” about unofficial sperm donors. Apparently, ladies can contact a sperm donor on-line, arrange a meeting and either be handed a container-full of the stuff or on occasion have it delivered direct through the medium of sex. Hence the phrase : “”Bottled or draught?” Sounds like an excellent service as well as an interesting career move, although it could mess-up the old CV, especially if the CV is printed on a sheet of Kleenex. Just realised that if this type of work is a career, the phrase “hand job” begins to make sense.
How would the management at Student Loans UK feel if they were told that because of administrative incompetence, their September salaries will be paid at the end of October. They would probably be quite upset. Next question: How do young kids with the incredible stress associated with leaving home feel-when they’re told by Student Loans UK that their University grants will be paid “about” four weeks late? Why is the beginning of the academic year ALWAYS a surprise? For the record and to help Student Loans UK: The next academic year will be starting in October 2010. Hopefully, that’s enough notice.
Scientists at Newcastle University have produced human sperm in the laboratory. Didn’t know that there was a shortage. Just take a chipping hammer to any Confessional carpet.
Gordon Brown said today “Cooperation between nations at the G20 summit will be crucial to ensure global economic recovery” That is probably the twentieth version of the same sentence . It is a truism and it’s boring. Here’s another sentence which I hope Gordon finds as interesting as his own deep thoughts: ” The sun is in the sky”
Here is a quote from this evening’s No 10 bulletin: “The Prime Minister is launching a brand new podcast series this week talking directly to you about the big issues of the day. The podcasts, which will be available on our iTunes channel andonYouTube, will be recorded at Downing Street or around the world when the Prime Minister is travelling.” Wow! That Gordon Brown is so “street” -using that Interwebthingytoconnectwith the YouTube dudes. Way to go, MC Gordo! Soon, he’ll be buying a pair of those really cool Levi Strauss blue denim casual trousers with the turn-ups, copper rivets and the little red label. Sound! Should go well with the black brogues.
Remember what I told you about the American dollar going into freefall. Soon. Continue reading Monday September 7th 2009-Friday September 18th 2009
The current Labour government is having a very tough time and a very bad situation is made worse by what appears to be a lack of leadership and management skill. Gordon Brown seems to feel that you can manage by changing the rules or by organising enquiries. You can imagine Brown being informed that more and more people are on the breadline and solving the problem by having an enquiry whose purpose would be to confirm that the breadline is in the right place and if not, recommending where it should be placed.
We are currently in a post-collectivist society which has lost several compasses, ranging from the moral and social to the economic and political, resulting in an upsurge in crime, family breakdown, violence, drug abuse and poverty.
We are existingin a morally sterile, Left-wing, politically correct State and because we have forgotten how to self-manage, we will have more and more regulations imposed on us – otherwise, we are in very real danger of lapsing into anarchy. That is exactly what has happened in the Banking industry. It has taken a mere twenty years to move from what started as a self-regulating, rock solid service industry to arrive where we are today. An every-man-for-himself rip-off business which will now have such a raft of rules and regulations placed on it that it will suffocate. Collectivism has morphed into Neo-individualism which needs rules.
The word “equality” used to be a concept – albeit a good one – definitely unnattainable but nevertheless, worth striving for. “All men are created equal” and all that…..
Nowadays, we all have to appear “equal”. Inequality has become an evil which has to be eradicated at all costs and it now stands in the dock, shoulder-to-shoulder with poverty and global warming as one of the Three Bogeymen which has to be killed-off through the medium of meetings, promises and large cut-and-paste documents.
The sad fact is that we will always have both inequality and poverty. That is Society and Normal Distribution.
But if we decide to subsidise the poor so that they are more equal to their rich cousins, then it is those rich cousins who have to generate more wealth in order to pay for those subsidies and thus we create a tranche of society which becomes totally dependent and more resentful because they not-only have poverty but also, courtesy the media, a direct window on the lives of their better-off cousins. Africa is a good example. We are in very real danger of creating a wholly-dependent continent which is simultaneously grateful and resentful.
Elsewhere, the Equality Mullahs have substituted “qualifications” for education resulting in an insipid education system where excellence has become the property not of the FEW, as it used to be. It is now in the hands of the VERY FEW. That is what happens in any system where there is an attempt at “forced distribution” – whether it is A-level grades or income.
All systems, whether political, physical or economic are self-adjusting with what appears to be a strong unwritten self-preservation programme buried in them – especially if there has been an attempt at “forced distribution”.
Even the banking system has self-adjusted recently.
We are now moving into the third generation of people who know nothing but emotional and physical squalor, who cannot communicate, eat properly, relate to “the others” and who will automatically resort to aggression when thwarted in any way.
We appear to be at the stage when we need Victorian-type social reformers and not mediocre political management whose tools of the trade are slogans, meetings and enquiries.
We are very good at uttering the slogans of equality but the sad fact is that over the last few years, the poor have been getting poorer, the thick have been getting thicker and the violent have been joining the police.
There has been a build-up of social pressure which is in real danger of manifesting itself as social unrest – the sort that will have to be dealt-with by means of state violence by uniformed men carrying sticks and Perspex shields.
Tinkering ( VAT, green cars etc) is not the answer. The ONLY solution lies in massive CHANGE – and if that change comes late, the entire system will crash before it has to be rebooted..
” This morning it was as big as Nigella’s arse.”
We are currently experiencing the coldest December for 30 years.
There are sectors of society which are welcoming the news – for instance, the antiques trade has always enjoyed a severe cold-snap – especially if it was linked to old dears not being able to afford to heat their homes. Really severe cold weather has always livened up antiques markets and auction houses. By late Spring there should be a very welcome glut of Clarice Cliff tea sets and Edwardian walnut sideboards. The antiques trade curses Gordon Brown and his heating allowances.
There is another “up side” to a cold December – the Global Warming Mullahs have shut up. Are they the same people who warned us about the Millennium Bug and Bird Flu?
A 30-something designer-dishevelled professor from a redbrick university will soon be wheeled out on the 6 o’clock news to tell us – with just the right touch of rakish gravitas – that the cold weather is caused by man-made Global Warming. The true believers will nod knowingly – for they know that he will have spoken the “universally accepted scientific fact”. But is that so?
The funny thing is that since el Nino warmed the planet ten years ago, there has been no real increase in the overall global temperature. If there is any doubt – what are the figures? Has anyone seen the actual temperature charts? We have seen lots of polar bears on small icebergs but no figures.
Icebergs have always been around as have hungry polar bears but nowadays, they are PROOF(!) that the planet is off to Hell on a handcart (or should that be a bandwagon?)
Surely, if any changes in weather patterns are man-made, the last ten years would have produced quite appreciable changes. India and China, (to name but two) have been burning fossil fuels like the clappers. So where are the mild winters that we were promised?
I’m off to buy a furniture removal van followed by a quick glance at the Obits.
Recession – what recession?
Alistair the house elf
This Government and the banks have a lot in common. They have both enjoyed many years of negligible economic turbulence and zero competition.
The good times may have continued if either had noticed that Wall Street had invented the real weapons of mass destruction – the financial ones. The banks had sliced, chopped, diced and mixed bad mortgages and fashioned them into contaminative instruments of death with a built-in time fuse.
The bankers’ handiwork has created a vast financial Black Hole which has already consumed many financial institutions and is beginning to consume whole economies. So what to do? It’s obvious – decrease VAT by 2.5%.
Decrease VAT? The Government has shown once again that it is a bit short on creative ideas. It often uses short-term tactics to deal with strategic matters. On this occasion, it is in the vain hope that when the global economy returns to sunshine and wealth , the Government will will be able to claim that it had controlled events. Gordon “Canute” Brown and his house elf Darling will have done it!
(In reality it will have simply been a readjustment in the new global Stability-Chaos-Stability cycle).
But think about this: The global economic crisis is happening because of “external forces which are out of our control”. If that is the case and we truly have no control over super-macroeconomic events, gestures such as VAT-tweaks will have negligible impact. Even Mervyn King appears to be distancing himself from this initiative.
Gordon Brown is indeed a one-trick pony who believes that the only way forward is to persuade the consumer to consume. However, he will not pull the economy out of the quicksand by persuading us to buy 42″ television sets and new cars. When the going gets tough, the tough buy food and clothing.
By pulling the white rabbit of higher taxation out of the Budget hat for those earning more than £100K, he has appealed to the “not-so-rich” (are we allowed to say “poor”) with a touch of the old “Politics of Envy”. We can almost hear Denis Healey “squeezing the rich until the pips squeak” . Let’s call it Gordon’s “hommage” to Old Labour.
“Joker burning money”
The Prime Minister has announced a £1 billion energy package that could help households across the UK save more than £300 a year on their energy bills.
Speaking at a Downing Street press conference, Mr Brown said the Government will legislate to channel £910 million from energy companies into energy-saving initiatives such as providing loft insulation and cavity wall insulation free of charge to elderly and low-income households and at a 50 percent discount to others.
Cash will also be pumped into a new Community Energy Saving Programme that will provide up to 90,000 homes with targeted advice on improving their energy efficiency and reducing their bills.
The Prime Minister said he did not expect energy companies to pass these costs back to consumers through future prices. Business Secretary John Hutton added that the Government “will not hesitate to intervene” should an Ofgem review suggest that consumers were getting a raw deal.
Mr Brown said the Home Energy Saving Programme would help drive “lasting change” in UK energy efficiency and consumption. Environment Secretary Hilary Benn, also at the press conference, said that each household could save £100 through loft installation and £150 through cavity wall installation in just 12 months.
Other Government plans to help people with their fuel bills include negotiating lower tariffs with energy companies for up to 600,000 homes, increasing cold weather payments from £8.50 to £25 per week in severe conditions and providing cash on top of Winter Fuel payments to the over-60s and over-80s of £50 and £100 respectively.
In common with all other Government initiatives it would be of great benefit and interest to people if they had an indication of how much of the allocated funds would actually be spent on the materials and how much on labour costs.
For instance, when the Government says that it is spending an additional £20 million on education – that could mean any number of things. It could mean more teachers or it could mean lots of electronic blackboards. It could mean more books or it could mean a lick of paint.
Every £1000 spent on loft insulation could mean either 100 lofts insulated at £10 each or possibly one loft at £100, i.e £10 for the insulating material and £90 for labour charges by the local council.
90,000 homes are to be provided with ” targetted advice on improving their energy efficiency and reducing their bills”. Does that mean leaflets? Home visits by several more sub-strata of public servant?
Has the Government thought this one through as thoroughly as all the other initiatives?
Oh what’s this?
“Sorry, no thanks. It’s too late…… Siobhain McDonagh? Nope. Don’t recall the name. I seem to recall a Junior Whip by that name – but that was a long time ago…..Yesterday, I think.” (Thinks) “I wonder what else is heading for the fan? “
“All species expand as much as resources allow and predators, parasites, and physical conditions permit. When a species is introduced into a new habitat with abundant resources that accumulated before its arrival, the population expands rapidly until all the resources are used up.”
– David Price, Energy and Human Evolution
Then they die.
It has been demonstrated on numerous occasions that all species suffer population collapse or species extinction if they overshoot and degrade the carrying capacityof their ecology.
For instance, in 1944, 29 reindeer were brought to St Matthew Island . Initially there were abundant food sources and the reindeer population increased dramatically. There were no predators to cull the population.
About 20 years after they were first introduced, the reindeer had overshot the food carrying capacity of the island, and there was a sudden, massive die-off. About 99% of the reindeer died of starvation.
The human race has its own St Matthew Island – it is called Earth. We have no predators to keep our population is check, so we self-regulate in a very limited way by occasionally carrying out our own culls through the self-designed joint mediums of war and disease.
The reindeer on St Matthew Island ran out of food – and although we are also running out of food, it is oil and gas that we regard as our most precious resource. Just like the reindeer which died after munching their way through the very last bits of moss, we are about to pump and burn our way through the last droplet of oil and final whiff of gas .
The reindeer of St Matthew island will have ended their days scratching at the earth looking for moss in places where they had never looked before. No doubt they would have found scraps which kept them going for another few days.
When a commodity has a high-enough value, it is worth looking for it in places where you possibly would not have bothered when there was lots of it available.
THE ANTARCTIC OIL
Two years ago, Ali Bakhtiari, a former senior adviser for the National Iranian Oil Company, said at a meeting of international Antarctic specialists in Hobart that pressure to drill in Antarctica could soon become irresistible – and he was right.
“I hope it will not happen because that would create enormous difficulties, but when you have the enormous price increase that I can foresee governments and companies will want to find oil anywhere,” he said in 2006.
“There is now only one frontier province left and that is Antarctica,” he was quoted as saying by Australia’s national news agency AAP.
Bakhtiari predicted the world’s oil production rate would peak at 81 million barrels per day and decline to roughly 55 million barrels per day by 2020, pitching oil prices to “stratospheric levels“.
Even two years ago , he could not have foreseen the damage that a combination of supply (OPEC’s intransigence, Nigeria’s instability and America’s untidy foreign policy), speculation (George Soros and his troupe of keyboard-bashing monkeys) and demand (India, China), could do to the current (2008) price of oil.
In 7 or 8 years about one-third of the world’s remaining oil supply will be gone and the “stratospheric” price of oil and gas will probably cause a world recession on such a scale as to endanger our lives. Hopefully that will signal the wake-up call that stops us all being so parochial and we develop a concept of cross-border responsibility which is not driven by charity and the West’s brand of one-sided economics, waste and ugly self-interest.
Seven countries have made territorial claims in Antarctica, but not all countries recognize these claims. No change there !
The 1961 Antarctic Treaty established the legal framework for the management of Antarctica and has 28 decision-making members, including the seven that claim portions of the continent. Imagine Antarctica as a large cake with seven greedy schoolboys gathered round it – who will get the biggest piece?
The Magnificent Seven are Argentina, Australia, Chile, France, New Zealand, Norway, and Britain.
The United States and Russia have reserved the right to make claims and the US does not recognize the claims of others. The playground bullies know that no-one will dare reach for a slice of cake until they have given permission!
Antarctica is protected from mineral exploration under the Madrid Protocol, which bans mining, but the prohibition can be changed at any time if all 28 signatory countries agree.
We can look forward to lots of countries sticking lots of flags in the snow. That will be followed by lots of flags being kicked over and moved and more meetings.
THE ARCTIC OIL
Currently, it looks as if both the top and bottom of the earth are about to be plundered because an estimated 90 billion barrels of undiscovered but technically recoverable oil — three years of world consumption — lie north of the Arctic Circle, the U.S. Geological Survey reported this week.
While the oil, along with vast quantities of natural gas, will be extremely difficult to extract, the promise is enough to make the frozen north the new — and maybe last — frontier for world energy producers.
According to geology and probability, undiscovered oil and gas are thought to be present . If they’re further confirmed, they will become reserves and (hopefully) some of OPEC’s smugness will fade.
Currently, the five nations that border the Arctic — the United States, Russia, Denmark, Canada and Norway — all have their eyes on what geologists say is about a quarter of the world’s undiscovered but technically recoverable oil, natural gas and natural gas liquids.
According to the new survey, the Arctic Alaskan Province, which includes offshore seabeds, has the greatest potential for undiscovered oil – an estimated 30 billion barrels.
Mark Myers, the director of the U.S. Geological Survey, said he hoped that the new estimates would contribute to future energy decisions.
“Before we can make decisions about our future use of oil and gas and related decisions about protecting endangered species, native communities and the health of our planet, we need to know what’s out there,” he said in a statement. They always say stuff like that just before digging holes.
Look out elks and Inuits.
Geologist Donald Gautier, who led the study, added, “In our judgment, the Arctic Alaska Province is the most obvious place to look for oil north of the Arctic Circle right now.”
While Arctic Alaska has the greatest undiscovered energy potential, other big stocks are thought to lie in the Amerasia Basin north of the two continents and also east of Greenland.
The West Siberian Basin contained the most undiscovered natural gas, with 651 trillion cubic feet, followed by the East Barents Basins, with 318 trillion cubic feet, and Arctic Alaska, with 221 trillion cubic feet.
The geological survey didn’t consider the cost of recovery, but will publish an economic analysis of likely costs next year, said Brenda Pierce, the coordinator of the agency’s Energy Resources Programme.
Energy companies have already identified more than 400 oil and gas fields north of the Arctic Circle. High energy prices and global warming are making the forbidding region more inviting than ever.
The next ten years-or-so will prove challenging. There will be reports, commissions, meetings, summits, signatures and threats.
That will be followed by the USA declaring a “war on ice” and attempting to take what it needs.
China will then look up from its workbench, flex its muscles, crack its knuckles and then we’ll all find out if that bloke who predicted Armageddon was right.
The phrase “Boom Bust” will always be associated with the Tory years. It was the Socialists who embedded the link in our minds. That means that they need another phrase to explain the current Boom-Bust cycle. Uprecedented Growth/Credit Crunch looks good.
Make no mistake, by the end of 2008, inflation will be at 10-12% per annum, house prices will have fallen even further and by the end of this year, unemployment will have reached (but not peaked at) two million and the FSA and bank-induced rigor mortis will have all but finished-off the British financial services industry.
Within the last month, we have entered the “Bust” phase of the economic cycle – or “Credit Crunch”. (Sounds much friendlier – almost like a breakfast cereal.)
One good thing has come out of the whole sorry affair: we have come to realise that the futile posturings of the Bank of England are irrelevant and that the BoE is no longer a “shaper” of the economy. It is merely an observer.
During “Boom” years, having lots of meetings and tinkering with the Base Rate is a harmless enough pastime. However, come the “Bust” phase of the cycle, the old chestnuts ” We are in a Global Economy” , “Downward slope of the Economic Cycle” , “Sorry mate, we didn’t see that one coming” and “It was those fucking Americans and their securitised mortgages” are trotted out.
What bankers practise is not an exact science – that is why there are usually several opinions as to whether or not rates should be changed or who to blame for the latest screw-up. What they practise is best described as a combination of “bucket chemistry” and “guesstimation”.
The Bank of England has no more effect on inflation than my wife recycling plastic bottles has on global weather systems.
In the good old days when the BoE did as it was told, successive Chancellors would order a change in Base Rate in the full knowledge that in the grand scheme of things, their machinations and fiddling would have absolutely no long-term effect on the economy. (Are you reading this, Norman Lamont?)
When government does finally intervene and shake up the financial system, they will have to do very BIG things such as nationalisation. The days of futile fiddling with interest rates are over.
Under Mervyn King, the BoE Monetary Policy Committee has become an irrelevance.
There is no longer any correlation between Base Rate and what happens to real borrowing rates. The banks are out of control and more-or-less doing what they damn-well please.
Everyone is reluctant to use the word “recession” which , just for the record, applies to a period when the economy experiences negative growth for two consecutive quarters. Or, to put it in plain English: when the economy shrinks for six months. The economy is now shrinking.
Some may say that certain “sectors”are not in recession while others are.
That’s like being slightly pregnant. Either you are pregnant or you’re not.
Sometimes it seems that even the economists and bankers don’t understand what is going on. Nowadays we live in a much more immediate and unstable age and therefore , the old economic principles are ceasing to apply. A single unpredicted event can have a major impact on either all , or on individual economies. More Chaos than Keynes.
The fact is that we can no longer manage Macro Economics through Micro Management. Interest rate tweaks, sugared by soothing political noises and underpinned by blind panic are having little effect . For instance, The Americans have decimated their interest rates recently with no particular effect on their economy although they “think” that they have had a slight effect on their inflation.
Bush staged a big dollar “giveaway”. Brown has now done the same. Both were decisions based in Politics rather than Economics. Perhaps the time has come to move Economics from the Politicians’ reach?
Looking on the bright side, in a few years, all this will be history. Mervyn will be gone, another Prime Minister’s hand will be up another Chancellor’s lower alimentary canal and in spite of the BoE’s and the Government’s ineffectual tinkering and rhetoric, those of us who survive will be enjoying another “Boom” but not before we have struggled through another recession/depression.
By 2013, the new Government will tell us that it was their policies and prudence that led us to the New Prosperity. The old Government had got it all wrong.
Economists and Bankers will tell us that they did not see any of this coming. I am not a banker or economist but reckon that we are headed not just for a recession but a full-blown , very painful Depression – à la 1930s. The hazy and illusory days of plenty will be over.
Finally, I don’t think that enough has been made of Tony Blair’s excellent timing.
He ruled over us during a time of “virtual” plenty (it wasn’t real because it was funded by debt-ridden banks funding increasingly debt-ridden companies and individuals).In spite of Gordon Brown’s mithering, Blair held on until the rubber-band of economic growth was at maximum stretch. Finally, he handed it to Gordon………
The real worry is that at the time Gordon Brown was the Chancellor of the Exchequer and should have forseen certain things.
Not only did he not see what was flying through the air but even when it whistled past his ear, he did not notice that it was heading straight for the fan.
What has been electronically removed from the picture below:
Some say that Cameron is like Porsches, truffles, and Ricky Gervais : overrated – but in the Land Of No Leaders the pretty one is king.
We had a look at Gordon Brown’s lack of leadership style so in the interests of even-handedness, fairness and all that nonsense, let’s have a look at Eco Dave, the ozone-free, unleaded, bio-diversified (with the tiny carbon footprint) toff.
Firstly, he is extremely likable but is he a leader? He does have the pedigree – being descended from a long line of financial wheeler-dealers. He is also one of the many direct descendants of William lV and his mistress Dorothy Jordan. (William and Dorothy produced at least ten illegitimate children. When he died, William had no legitimate children and was succeeded to the throne by his niece, Victoria). That is why Dave is a distant cousin of our Queen. It looks therefore, that he is at least genetically programmed to be either a German king mit financial bent or a fun-loving hooray.
Dave’s educational pedigree is immaculate – Eton and a PPE First Class Honours at Brasenose, Oxford.
Were his leadership qualities surfacing at Uni ? Not really. He gained a reputation as a nice guy with a predilection for boisterous behaviour – but only in a crowd.
Most of his adult life has been spent working for the Conservatives with a stint at Carlton Communications.
He sharpened up John Major’s speeches and witty ripostes at the dispatch box………..ummmm…..we’ll gloss over that one.
The next bit is from Dave’s own web site:
In December 2005 David was elected leader of the Conservative Party. He has previously held the positions of Shadow Deputy Leader of the House of Commons (2003), Deputy Chairman of the Conservative Party (2003), front bench spokesman on Local Government Finance (2004) and Head of Policy Co-ordination up until May 2005. After the General Election in 2005 David held the position of Shadow Secretary of State for Education and Skills. In December 2005 he became The Leader of H.M. Opposition.
He became leader only four years after becoming an MP. What does that tell you?
The Conservatives needed a safe and clever pretty boy. Mind you, looking at a mixture of the best physical qualities of his three or four predecessors, this guy would have won the beauty parade:
Dave handles himself well at the dispatch box, he is becoming more and more believable, but is he a triumph of style over substance? Does he have the killer instinct. Could he sack his best friend if he needed to?
Do you know? I think that he could.
The Manhattan Declaration on Climate Change
‘Global warming’ is not a global crisis
We, the scientists and researchers in climate and related fields, economists, policymakers, and business leaders, assembled at Times Square, New York City, participating in the 2008 International Conference on Climate Change,
Resolving that scientific questions should be evaluated solely by the scientific method;
Affirming that global climate has always changed and always will, independent of the actions of humans, and that carbon dioxide (CO2) is not a pollutant but rather a necessity for all life;
Recognising that the causes and extent of recently observed climatic change are the subject of intense debates in the climate science community and that oft-repeated assertions of a supposed ‘consensus’ among climate experts are false;
Affirming that attempts by governments to legislate costly regulations on industry and individual citizens to encourage CO2 emission reduction will slow development while having no appreciable impact on the future trajectory of global climate change.
Such policies will markedly diminish future prosperity and so reduce the ability of societies to adapt to inevitable climate change, thereby increasing, not decreasing, human suffering;
Noting that warmer weather is generally less harmful to life on Earth than colder:
Hereby declare: That current plans to restrict anthropogenic CO2 emissions are a dangerous misallocation of intellectual capital and resources that should be dedicated to solving humanity’s real and serious problems.That there is no convincing evidence that CO2 emissions from modern industrial activity has in the past, is now, or will in the future cause catastrophic climate change.That attempts by governments to inflict taxes and costly regulations on industry and individual citizens with the aim of reducing emissions of CO2 will pointlessly curtail the prosperity of the West and progress of developing nations without affecting climate.That adaptation as needed is massively more cost-effective than any attempted mitigation and that a focus on such mitigation will divert the attention and resources of governments away from addressing the real problems of their peoples.
That human-caused climate change is not a global crisis.
Now, therefore, we recommend –
That world leaders reject the views expressed by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change as well as popular, but misguided works such as An Inconvenient Truth.
That all taxes, regulations, and other interventions intended to reduce emissions of CO2 be abandoned forthwith.
Agreed at New York, 4 March 2008. [End of Declaration]